Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 250502
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. BEHIND IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
ARRIVE CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO FALL ONCE AGAIN. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE WEATHER
RELATIVELY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

BASED ON THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS CURRENTLY IMPACTING
CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL 11 PM NORTH OF
I-96. THIS LINES UP WITH THE ADVISORY TO OUR NORTH ISSUED BY THE
GAYLORD NWS OFFICE. THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY SLIDING SE ACROSS NRN LWR MI
AND THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE SAME AREA.

MEANWHILE THE BULK OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED SOUTH OF I-96 AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME SO LET THE ADVISORY
EXPIRE IN SRN SECTIONS. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH THE NORTHERN
INDIANA OFFICE. THEY WILL BE CANCELLING THEIR ADVISORY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

ONE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND IS GENERALLY WEAKENING. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
LAKE ENHANCED BAND WAS NEAR MUSKEGON. BEHIND IT THERE WAS A BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH EVEN SOME SUN SHOWING UP OVER LAKE MI.
HOWEVER A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT NEAR GREEN BAY WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG IT. LATEST RUC
MODEL RUN TRIES TO STRENGTHEN THESE APPROACHING SQUALLS. VISIBILITIES
HAVE LOWERED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS IN THE STRONGER SQUALLS. THIS
FRONT WILL TRACK STEADILY SOUTHEAST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. SOME IMPACTS LIKELY AT THE START THE COMMUTE FOR SOUTH
HAVEN...KALAMAZOO THROUGH GRAND RAPIDS AND LANSING WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND DRIFTING SNOW FROM THE WINDS THAT ARE STILL
GUSTING OVER 35 MPH IN PLACES. WHILE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE
SNOW...CONSIDERING ANOTHER BRIEFER BURST OF SNOW ARRIVES WITH THE
COLD FRONT...WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE GOING.

WE DID CHECK IN WITH A FEW COUNTY ROAD COMMISSIONS. OTTAWA COUNTY
SAID IT WAS VERY ICY WITH NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS. MASON COUNTY HAD
SOME IMPASSABLE ROADS EARLIER BUT CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED.
IONIA...ISABELLA AND MONTCALM COUNTIES REPORTED DRIFTING SNOW OVER
SOME ROADS. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT ICE COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD SUNSET.

LOTS OF CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OVERALL I WILL
DOWNPLAY POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE THE CLOUD COVER
SOMEWHAT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH
THURSDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY AND
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO AMOUNT TO MORE THAN AN
INCH OR TWO. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON MONDAY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
TO BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW ON TUESDAY.

THIS LOW BEARS WATCHING AS THE GULF INFLOW IS SUBSTANTIAL. THERE ARE
STILL THE USUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD TO BE EXPECTED
OF A DAY 7 FORECAST SO WILL GO WITH LESS THAN 50 POPS FOR NOW. WE
HAVE SEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM REMAIN DOMINANT THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS
AND THE MODELS EVENTUALLY BACK OFF ON BRINGING GULF MOISTURE THIS
FAR NORTH...BUT THE PATTERN MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SUCH A
SCENARIO THIS TIME. STAYED TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH. THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME BRIEF VSBYS OF 2-4 MILES THROUGH 08Z IN SOME OF THE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE THE FRONT IS COMPLETELY THROUGH.
ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ALONG
THE LAKESHORE AT MKG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SFC WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND REMAIN LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

CURRENTLY NO SUSPECTED ICE JAMS AND RIVER LEVELS ARE HOLDING RATHER
STEADY. FORECAST CALLS FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW OPPORTUNITIES. THE RISK OF FLOODING IS
FAIRLY LIMITED UNTIL A NOTABLE WARM-UP OR RAIN EVENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS






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