000
FXUS63 KGRR 150338
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1140 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

A COLD FRONT SWEPT EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH RESULTED
IN TEMPERATURES TUMBLING FROM EARLY MORNING HIGHS IN THE 60S.
READINGS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AS SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE. THE AIR WILL
EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD BE TRACE AMOUNTS TUESDAY
MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER A
COLD TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 50S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

AT 2340Z KGRR RADAR TRENDS/SFC OBS INDICATE A BAND OF MODERATE
SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ENE ACROSS OUR NW FCST AREA. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ENE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE SNOW AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE SOME SLICK SPOTS TO DEVELOP ON AREA ROADS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SNOW TONIGHT. A SWATH OF
SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND PEEL OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
ALL AREAS STAND THE CHANCE OF SEEING AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.
COULD SEE THE HEAVIEST TOTALS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA TOWARDS
JACKSON WHERE SOME 2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SNOW
IS BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EAST.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WE WILL ACTUALLY BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH DELTA T/S INCREASING
INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO WANE TUESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT IN CHECK. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN THOUGH INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS.

QUIET WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
LIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PIVOTING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN
INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST WAVE DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SECOND WAVE RIDES NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD
REALLY BE DETRIMENTAL TO THE HIGH RIVER FLOWS ONGOING ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER APPEARS A BIT WEAKER THAN THE RECENT SYSTEM
AND DOESN/T HAVE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAT WE HAD A COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO. QPF IS AROUND A HALF INCH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE SATURDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO LIFR IN
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR THEN VFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS AS SNOW EXITS THE AREA.

A FEW FLURRIES WILL LINGER TUESDAY AND WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TUESDAY MORNING AND GUST TO 20 TO 25 KTS FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

NO REAL CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER THINKING REGARDING HYDRO. THE AREAL
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN THREE
ROWS OF COUNTIES AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED EARLY THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES
WITH WATER OVER ROADS...CULVERT WASHOUTS AND ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO
WATER IN THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING COUNTIES.

RIVER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
BEING ACROSS THE BASINS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERAL OF THE
HYDROGRAPHS CONTINUE ON ALMOST VERTICAL RISES AS WATER ROUTES INTO
THE RIVERS. THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
RECORD LEVELS. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
RELIEF NOT COMING UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK WHEN WATERS SLOWLY START TO
RECEDE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ039-044.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE