Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 070455
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SLOW DOWN ON MONDAY AND BECOMING
STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ONE MORE MAINLY
DRY DAY IS FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECASTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

OVERALL THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK THAT
FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT LOOK MARGINAL
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW. I WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP FOR THE WARM
ADVECTION LIFT THAT OCCURS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION THAT ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SOME SNOW COULD OCCUR OUTSIDE THAT PERIOD.

TOUGH FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE COVERAGE AND
AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL BE A CHALLENGE. CONTINUED MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND A MORE FAVORABLE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SUPPORTS
INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPACTS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED BY THE ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. PERHAPS
A BETTER RISK FOR IMPACTS MONDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
BELOW FREEZING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW TRIES TO FOCUS THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF A BATTLE CREEK TO BIG RAPIDS LINE. THE HIGH
RES EURO 12Z RUN SHOWS THE MOST PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OVER
JACKSON. SO IT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A SYNOPTIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND PRODUCE
FLAREUPS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OVERALL...THE LONG TERM WILL BE COLDER
THAN NORMAL AND LIKELY SNOWIER TOO.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT WE/LL SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF SNOW NEXT
WEEK. SPECIFIC ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR...BUT
CONDITIONS FAVOR THE LAKESHORE AND LOCATIONS NEAR I-94 SEEING THE
MOST SNOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TUESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKE WILL BE MODERATELY HIGH GIVEN H8 TEMPS NEAR -15C. H8
TEMPS OVER THE LAKE WILL BE IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. SO NO QUESTION ON WHETHER THE LAKE WILL BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE QUESTION MARK IS MOISTURE. INITIALLY...MOISTURE
WON/T BE A PROBLEM AS INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE NEAR 9K FEET BUT
GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 4K FEET BY LATE WEDNESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ERODES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD SHUT DOWN A LOT OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW. I HAVE MY DOUBTS THOUGH AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW
WILL END ALTOGETHER. I/M THINKING IT WON/T. TOO OFTEN THIS TIME OF
YEAR WHEN TEMPS ARE REALLY COLD OVER THE LAKE...THE SNOW DOESN`T
QUIT. VISIBILITIES MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW 3-5SM...BUT IT DOESN/T
COMPLETELY END. SO WE HAVE HIGH POPS INTO THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
THEM AFTER THAT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAYS WITH HIGHS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

PREDOMINATELY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS PROBABLY RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT TOWARD
06Z. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR PRECIP ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES NEXT 24 HOURS.

SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS. THIS ONE LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE
SYSTEM THAT CAUSED TODAYS WINDS AND WAVES. THUS WILL GO WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. CONDITIONS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPROVE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BY TUESDAY. THUS
UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT LOOKS LIKELY TO
RETURN BY THEN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 132 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA IS ON TRACK TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS HAS BEGUN
ITS SLOW RECESSION. COLDER TEMPERATURES AFTER MONDAY WILL CAUSE
RIVER ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER LEVEL
FLUCTUATIONS THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS


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