Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 261920
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
320 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...AFTER A
DRY THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND THE COMING WORK WEEK LOOK MOSTLY DRY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH RECENTLY ISSUED WITH INCREASING
DESTABILIZATION AND SHEAR AHEAD OF LIFTING UPPER WAVE. PLEASE
REFERENCE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER WI/MN ENTERING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY. PUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO
THIS BETTER MOISTURE. SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO HAS A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS MORE DISCRETE
CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED INCLUDES HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A FROST THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK RAIN EVENT...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD
CAUSE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS TO EXCEED AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAINS SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR...DRY AND COOL WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE COLDER LOCATIONS IN
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH AREAS OF IFR AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z WITH SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM UNTIL AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BUT GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WEBCAMS
INDICATE FOG HAS ERODED AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE WITH RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE LOW AND STABLE. EXPECTING 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLOWLY
INCREASING RIVER LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING NO OR MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING BY WEEKS END.

A POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY (OVER AN INCH) MAY PUSH
SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL BY NEXT WEEK... IF THESE
AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...TJT



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