000
FXUS63 KGRR 232027
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A CLIPPER
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. IT WILL TURN
COLD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TWO FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM. ONE IS FOR LIGHT PRECIP
TONIGHT AND THE OTHER IS THE CLIPPER ON SUNDAY. FOR TONIGHT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES AS AN AREA
OF CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW THROUGH 06Z AND THEN
THE DGZ DRIES OUT AND THERE COULD BE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THERE IS NOT MUCH LIFT IN THE LOW STRATUS
DECK DURING THAT TIME SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO CAUSE
ANY PROBLEMS.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE BACK IN AFTER 12Z AND A
PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH. THE CLIPPER APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN A
DEFINITE TREND SOUTHWARD...AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED IN THE FORECAST
BUT LEFT QPF A BIT HIGHER THAN THE 12Z GUIDANCE IN CASE THE PATH
JOGS BACK NORTH TONIGHT. WILL HAVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO LOWER AMOUNTS IF THE
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

ALSO CUT BACK CLOUDS AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE QUIET SIDE. THE FIRST
CHANCE AT PCPN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A
WEAKENING CLIPPER MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH THIS. UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN DRY WX TUESDAY NIGHT-WED AFTER WHICH A
STRONGER CLIPPER WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE COLD MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY
CLIPPER. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 20S. DITTO FOR
FRIDAY AFTER THE THURSDAY CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
KLAN/KJXN. SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OVER EASTERN LOWER AND SOME OF
THAT CLEARING HAS WORKED WEST TOWARD THOSE TWO TAF SITES. HAVE A
TEMPO GROUP WITH SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THERE. RH
PROFILES SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

RIVER GAUGES AT MOST SITES SHOW WATER LEVELS FALLING. THE MILDER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD NOT CAUSE ENOUGH SNOW MELT OR
ICE MELT TO BE A CONCERN. SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD KEEP THE ICE LOCKED UP. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING FOR ANY ICE
JAMS THAT DEVELOP... BUT SERIOUS ICE JAMS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AND RAINFALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...CAS