Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 301633
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1233 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE PUSHED INTO SW LWR MI SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME STELLAR SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR
MASS/STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADS TO EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
STRONGER 25-30 KTS WINDS AT 3000-5000 FT.

OCCASIONAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GRTLKS REGION AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER
THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW OFF LK MI SENDING STABLE AIR WELL INLAND AND PREVENTING ANY
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TYPICALLY THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF SW
LWR MI DRY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL USUALLY LIMITED TO JUST THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND CLARE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND AS THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A RIDGE OUT
WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS FOR THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH A CONTINUED CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
WESTERLY SFC WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS BY NOON WITH
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. CLR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS IS HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT TODAY. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THINGS
FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. THE LATEST RUC WIND GUIDANCE HAS
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LK MI OCCURRING THIS MORNING... OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST... THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT WHILE ACTUALLY
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THE IDEA IS THAT ONCE THE STRONGER HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING
COMMENCES OVER THE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WE END UP SEEING A
REVERSAL IN THE LAND/LAKE PRESSURE AND WIND REGIME... LEADING TO
A DECREASING TREND OVER THE WATER WHILE INCREASING OVER THE LAND.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOLID 3 FOOTERS OCCURRING AT 3 AM AND
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF SPIKE TO AROUND 4 FEET BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AM AND NOON. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
POST HEADLINES IF BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO TREND UP.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS... WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S... A DRY AIR MASS... AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXTREMELY LOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY DRY
FOR THE PAST 10 DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE RIVERS TO START RISING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
FIRE WEATHER...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...MEADE


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