Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 221754
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN ON
SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS ON MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. MAY NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND A FROST
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THERE.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN RESULT IN WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE RAINS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIMITED BY LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MILD AND WET. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 40 KT LLJ CROSSING THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE MOST PCPN
OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING OUR
WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT VFR WEATHER/CLR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 20 KTS THROUGH SUNSET THEN GO CALM TONIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES UNIFORM
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. RISES ON AREA
RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THE RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO


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