477
FXUS63 KGRR 070808
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
408 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clearing out with less heat and humidity today

- Almost daily chances for showers or storms Tuesday night into
  the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

- Clearing out with less heat and humidity today

Early morning low stratus and drizzly rain showers will gradually
lift and clear out from northwest to southeast during the day.
High temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals today, in the
lower 80s in most spots, with lower dew points in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. More information on the potential late-day incrasing
swim risk (beach hazards) in the Marine section below.

- Almost daily chances for showers or storms Tuesday night into
  the weekend

Quasi-zonal but relatively weak 500 mb flow with a few shortwaves
rippling through, plus gradually increasing heat and moisture in
the the low levels, will support frequent chances for showers or
thunderstorms popping up between Tuesday night and the weekend.
Per ensembles, chances are relatively higher between Tuesday night
and Wednesday afternoon, then Friday night through Saturday
evening in association with the more pronounced upper-level
shortwave troughts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Ceilings IFR variable to MVFR and drops in vis below 5SM with mist
and light rain will persist until gradual improvement occurs
between 12 and 18Z. After that, VFR is likely, though scattered
cumulus with bases above 3,000 feet may persist through the
afternoon. Winds will be generally be from the north at less than
10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Waves in the nearshore are coming down following yesterday`s
evening increase in winds and waves. Winds from the north becoming
northwest and increasing this afternoon will trend conditions
toward a late-day moderate to high swim risk (beach hazard)
for Muskegon county and south. Combination of post-cold-frontal
high pressure nudging into the U.P. and the afternoon development
of the lake breeze circulation will intensify winds toward 18-20
knots in the nearshore off Muskegon, Grand Haven, and Holland, per
the HREF mean. This is a scenario that often yields a moderate
becoming high swim risk late in the day for Muskegon State Park,
Holland State Park, and South Haven North Beach.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through this evening
     for MIZ050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CAS