000
FXUS63 KGRR 172352
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
752 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A cold front will move across Lower Michigan Sunday paving the way
for a few days of much cooler and drier air across the state. We`ll
likely see showers and thunderstorms tonight ahead of the front, a
few of which could produce strong winds and torrential rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Forecast concerns deal with convective trends tonight and Sunday.

Mesoanalysis shows much of the convective inhibition has eroded.
We`re sitting on 1500-2000j/kg SBCAPE and Li`s near -3c. A ribbon of
higher PWATs exists from Saginaw Bay to Grand Haven...in the area of
the current showers and thunderstorms. We`ll likely see an uptick in
convective activity this afternoon and tonight, especially if we can
increase heating as clouds thin from the south.

Low pressure moves northeast toward the cwa and drags a cold front
with it. We could see quite a bit of rain again across the central
cwa. Additionally, shear values near 40kts could result in strong to
perhaps severe storms, especially over the southeast cwa ahead of
the low. These showers and storms will linger into Sunday until the
cold front moves through.

Cooler and drier air will flow over the cwa Monday and monday night
with dewpoints falling back into the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Models have been consistent showing a decent shortwave in the
northwest flow aloft passing through the state on Tuesday. H5 temps
associated with this feature are progged to be near -20C, which
supports the possibility of some hail with any stronger storms at
peak heating.

Consistency also still exists for a dry day on Wednesday with a
brief period of surface ridging. However a returning warm front from
the southwest will bring back the threat of showers and tstms
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Details become sketchy toward the end of the week as GFS/ECMWF
differ on handling of system moving across srn Canada. This system
eventually sends a cold front through the region, but timing and
strength of that front is unclear at this time. The ECMWF looks much
cooler than the GFS next for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Areas of MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected overnight in
thunderstorms. The best chance for storms will be between AZO and
LAN this evening then affecting MKG to GRR after 04Z. The storms
should be moving east and out of western and central Lower
Michigan SUnday morning.

Winds will be south to southwest around 10 knots with some gusts
to 20 knots this evening then going west on Sunday. There could
also be stronger gusts in thunderstorms through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

No marine issues expected during the next few days. Cooler air will
arrive Sunday night and boost waves heights to 1 to 3 feet by
Monday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Showers and thunderstorms moved through West Michigan prior to
sunrise...with a swath of one to three inch amounts across
northern portions of Ottawa and Kent counties. The Rogue River at
Rockford rose almost 2 feet in a few hours this morning due to the
runoff from these storms...but has already started to fall.

Satellite shows mesoscale vortex over Chicago...with plenty of
moisture available ahead of this feature. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon through tonight...and
maintain a southwest to northeast orientation along the axis of
highest precipitable water values. Heavy rainfall will definitely
be possible given the high moisture availability and increased
precipitation efficiency.

Could see quick rises on some of the smaller rivers across the
region through Sunday morning...but above bankfull rises are not
anticipated at this time.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...Meade
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...MWS
MARINE...04