Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 271743
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
143 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER
WILL RETURN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND IT WILL BE COOL WITH
BRISK GUSTY NE WINDS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. WE CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STORM OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOST FCST AREA. HOWEVER MOST
AND PROBABLY ALL CONVECTION WILL STAY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IN/OH
WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/OH.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN
TO BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS BEGINNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE
RAIN BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING ON AND OFF INTO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS REVOLVE AROUND HOW ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS HOLDS THE ENERGY BACK
MORE TOWARD THE WESTERN TROUGH WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ON THE OTHER
HAND EJECT ENERGY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WEAK
TROUGHING OVERHEAD.

TRENDED OUR FORECAST A BIT DRIER...BUT STILL HAVE RAIN IN THE
FORECAST TO MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE
OR SUPPORT TO TIP THE SCALES COMPLETELY TOWARD DRY OR WET...BUT I AM
LEANING MORE TOWARD DRY. AGAIN THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHICH IS
WHY WE ARE MAINTAINING 30-50 PCT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

NO IMPACTS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

STRATUS FROM EARLIER HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH
THE DRY ERLY FLOW IN FIRM CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TRY TO MOVE IN AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE EATEN UP BY THE DRY FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE. EVENTUALLY SOME RAIN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD SUNRISE ON THU. WE EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP/MOVE IN AROUND 12Z OR SO ALONG I-94 AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE FCST PERIOD. CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-96 TERMINALS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

EASTERLY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT ON THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

RECENT RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS. SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE QUICK HITTING
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS


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