Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRR 300730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE PUSHED INTO SW LWR MI SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME STELLAR SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR
MASS LEADS TO EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER 25-30 KTS
WINDS AT 3000-5000 FT.

OCCASIONAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GRTLKS REGION AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER
THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OFF LK MI
SENDING STABLE AIR WELL INLAND AND PREVENTING ANY DECENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. TYPICALLY THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF SW LWR MI DRY WITH A
LOW POTENTIAL USUALLY LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWFA AROUND CLARE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND AS THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A RIDGE OUT WEST
AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
A CONTINUED CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED AT 15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT TODAY. THE LATEST RUC WIND GUIDANCE HAS THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER LK MI OCCURRING THIS MORNING... OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST... THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT WHILE BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE IDEA IS THAT ONCE THE STRONGER HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING
COMMENCES OVER THE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WE END UP SEEING A
REVERSAL IN THE LAND/LAKE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND REGIME LEADING
TO A DECREASING TREND OVER THE WATER.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOLID 3 FOOTERS OCCURRING AT 3 AM AND
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF SPIKE TO AROUND 4 FEET BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AM AND NOON. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
POST HEADLINES IF BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO TREND UP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE... BUT ONLY PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE RIVERS. RIVERS MAY SHOW RISES... BUT SHOULD NOT REACH BANK
FULL LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.