103
FXUS64 KHGX 071103
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

- Expect daily development of showers and thunderstorms through
  the end of the week, peaking in the afternoons.

- Locally heavy downpours are the primary concern from the
  strongest of these daily rounds of storms.

- We may see a shift in the pattern towards a hotter and drier
  setup late in the week, but the precise timing of this shift is
  quite uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

We are solidly in a summer weather pattern across Southeast Texas,
and the forecast will continue to revolve around the daily nuances
in passing features modulating the strength and orientation of the
subtropical ridge. The main feature of interest for us this week
will be an inverted trough making its way across the Gulf in our
direction, then gradually settling in over eastern Texas for a bit
before drifting southwest towards the Rio Grande late in the week.

Rain chances will be on the rebound as the trough makes its way
in, with greater afternoon coverage of showers and storms. This
trend should peak in the middle of the week when the trough is
more or less over us, and also looks to maybe link up a bit with
troughiness in the northern stream. This will keep midlevel
heights suppressed, and more supportive of more widespread diurnal
convection. Fortunately, precipitable water looks to be below the
90th percentile, which should preclude a watchout for flooding
issues...but PWATs in the area during summer are high enough
typically where isolated spots of concern may emerge should the
strongest storms of the day drop some localized downpours on a
particularly vulnerable spot.

Later in the week, though the daily potential for summertime
convection will continue, we should see coverage diminish
gradually as the trough drifts off to the southwest and ridging at
least attempts to build back in. However, it looks like the
highest heights will be way out over the Desert Southwest, while
we kind of struggle to fill in the weakness in the subtropical
ridge the passing trough leaves behind. Because of this, I`m not
ready to dry things out entirely, just start to trend PoPs
downward into the end of the week.

As these seasonable daily rain trends carry on, so too do
seasonable temperatures. We should see things fairly close to
seasonal averages for much of the week thanks to the afternoon
clouds and rainfall keeping things from getting too out of hand.
Indeed, my main alteration to the NBM was to replace the
deterministic highs with the 50th percentile of the NBM (and
tweaked slightly with other consensus blends) to hedge on the
slightly cooler side of things. Late in the week, we should see
temperatures start to slowly make their way upwards, and I do
allow that to occur, but until I see a real solid return of the
subtropical ridge, I don`t think I`m quite ready to commit fully
to a meaningfully hotter/drier pattern. It should happen at some
point...I`m just not confident in precisely when, just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Low but non-zero chance of MVFR conditions during the early
morning hours. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be
possible across the region during the daytime, especially in the
afternoon. Light southerly winds and VFR conditions will prevail
throughout much of the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of
the week. Light to moderate winds and low seas are expected
through Wednesday. Occasionally higher gusts up to 15 to 20 knots
are possible, particularly later in the week. Winds and seas may
increase towards the end of the week along with the increase in
winds. Locally higher winds and seas possible in the vicinity of
any thunderstorm that develops over the bays and Gulf waters this
week.

At the coast, the generally onshore winds will boost water levels
above astronomical norms, and guidance suggests several high tides
with levels above 2.5 feet above MLLW - more similar to highest
astronomical tides, when those would generally be above a foot
lower, near MHHW. Still, this is pretty safely below any coastal
flooding concerns. Similarly, while risk for rip currents is not
low because of the persistent onshore winds, rip current risk (and
observed strength per Galveston Beach Patrol) looks to be more
moderate for the time being.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  74  91  73 /  30  10  30  10
Houston (IAH)  92  77  92  75 /  50  10  50  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  82  90  82 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Luchs