Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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862
FXUS64 KHGX 162129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service LAKE CHARLES LA
329 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The day started out a bit foggy like yesterday morning with
clouds very slow to erode across the central and northern areas.
In fact...temperatures were only in the low to mid 70s in the
above mentioned areas under the canopy of clouds. Radar has shown
some very light patchy rain at times in this area. Southerly winds
have mixed out enough clouds across the rest of the area where
temperatures have moved up into the lower 80s from Sugarland and
Katy west to Columbus and Bay City.

Currently in the upper levels...a northwest flow aloft allowed a
weak disturbance to move through the area this afternoon. This
resulted only in a few patches of light as the airmass is still
capped. The upper flow is expected to flatten out on Friday as the
next system and associated cold front approaches. Rain chances
will remain low through tomorrow without a good low level trigger.
Even with the cold front moving in on Saturday...there still
appears to be low moisture and capping in place which may only
generate slight to scattered activity mainly in the vicinity of
the cold front. Much cooler and drier air will be moving in Sat
night/Sun.

Looking ahead, there is still a lot of uncertainty with the
forecast for next week. Long-range global models remain on mostly
opposite ends with ECMWF staying wet/active and the GFS not so
much. However, for what it`s worth, the Canadian appears to be
trending a bit more with the ECMWF and as such, will keep with
this in the extended grids. 06

MARINE... Winds will remain southeast to south near 10 knots
tonight and then strengthen and become south to southwest Friday.
Winds/seas may even reach SCEC with the southwesterly flow Friday
night and Saturday morning. A potent cold front sweeps through
southeast Texas Saturday and across the coastal waters late
Saturday afternoon and early evening. SCA conditions with
northerly winds 20-30 knots and gusty with chaotic seas that last
through Sunday morning then relaxing gradually in the afternoon
and evening. Winds turn back around to the east and southeast by
Monday night as upper trough rotates through. Still some big
uncertainty to Tuesday through Thanksgiving for the area depending
on the evolution of the upper trough...forecast confidence beyond
Tuesday is low. 06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      67  82  65  78  44 /  10  10  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              66  81  69  81  48 /  10  10  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            70  77  71  79  56 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...08
Aviation/Marine...99



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