Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 172041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
341 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Transition continues to a more typical summertime pattern.
Onshore flow has brought in more humid air mass over the past 4
days or so. Deeper moisture indicated by higher precipitable water
values is set to move onshore over the next 24 hours. GOES
satellite data showing PW values 1 inch inland...around 1.5
inches at the coast with values 2 inches or more over the Gulf. By
tomorrow some of that 2 inch PW air makes it into at least the
coastal counties. At upper levels upper high overhead today which
has been an inhibitor to thunderstorm development...tends to
drift SE and diminish replaced by a flatter upper pattern and
somewhat lower heights over the area. This flatter more zonal
upper pattern and the deeper moisture will lead to a wetter
pattern with the typical diurnal timing...scattered showers and
isold thunderstorms streaming into coastal counties in the
mornings...then development farther inland as the day goes on
with maximum intensity and coverage in the afternoon and evening
corresponding to peak heating and instability. Could see weak
disturbances in upper level westerly flow that modulate things and
alter the timing some...but all in all more of a typical summer
time pattern on tap for next several days.

Concerning the tropics...Hurricane Jose...Tropical Storm Maria
and Tropical Depression Lee are all found over the Atlantic
Waters and are a concern for portions of the East Coast and
islands of thEastern Carribean but none is expected to impact the
Texas coast. For the latest on these systems refer to the
National Hurricane Center website and social media.



Radar shows scattered showers erupting across the coastal waters.
Winds are easterly and light to moderate currently. While staying
relatively light, winds are expected to become more southeasterly as
the surface high over the northern Gulf coast drifts slowly
eastward. Towards midweek, a shortwave trough moving across the
nation`s midsection should bump winds up some, but at this time
still look to top out around marginal SCEC levels. Potential for
showers and thunderstorms should pick up in the coming days as
capping slowly weakens and moisture increases, with precipitable
water boosting to around 2 inches. Showers may then trend down late
in the week in the wake of the shortwave and the strongest portion
of the moisture plume shifts a little to the west.



Obs and satellite show VFR conditions have returned across the vast
majority of Southeast Texas. HOU is lagging somewhat with an 030
deck but expect that to lift shortly. Continue VCSH mention for HOU
coastward this afternoon, but expect any showers that do develop to
be few and far between today. Better chances tomorrow.

Overnight, should see a return of the fog we saw early this
morning north and west of the Houston metro which should lift to
MVFR ceilings later in the morning. Hewed a bit closer to
persistence than guidance for timing on this fog. Kept the same
trends, but held back a bit on just how low visibility will go -
for now settling with IFR and avoiding any LIFR or VLIFR. The more
dense fog should still be considered a possibility, however, and
may become a focus of future TAF cycles is confidence is there.


College Station (CLL)      73  92  74  93  76 /  10  30  10  30  10
Houston (IAH)              74  91  75  91  76 /  10  40  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            78  86  78  86  79 /  20  30  20  40  20



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