Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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848
FXUS64 KHGX 241722
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF/
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...Convection north and northeast of KUTS has
dissipated with no radar or satellite indications of an outflow
boundary coming from it. Outflow boundary coming from central
Texas storms has initiated a few new storms north of KUTS/KCLL.
The latest runs of the HRRR shows this development and quite
possible to get outflow from those storms to move through KCLL and
KUTS. These TAFs reflect the outflow boundary but there is still a
chance that wind shift may not occur. Also the outflow is not
expected to push that far south so left out wind shift for KCXO.
Overnight into tomorrow expect mainly VFR conditions and near calm
winds.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX/KGLS...mainly VFR conditions with possibly SW
winds becoming S/SE with sea breeze. Overall pressure gradient
should maintain SW winds but sea breeze could back those winds
more to the S. SE winds may be tough to develop. There is a small
chance an outflow boundary could work into the Houston area this
evening from the north but those chances look low. VFR conditions
expected again tonight into tomorrow.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
MCS over our far NE counties is continuing to weaken this morning
with satellite indicating cooling tops. However will be keeping a
close eye on the activity moving down from NC TX through the rest
of today. While the airmass over Houston, Trinity and Polk count-
ies may be too worked over for any additional strong development,
the same may not be said for the adjacent counties. Otherwise not
expecting a lot of activity across the rest of our FA through the
afternoon/early evening. 41

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

3 AM temperatures across Southeast Texas range from the upper
70s/near 80 well inland to the mid 80s at the coast. An outflow
boundary from earlier north Texas convection and possibly some
weak convergence has helped to set off slow moving showers and
thunderstorms across our far north and northeast counties, roughly
from the Latexo/Crockett area to around Apple Springs and from
the Lake Livingston area to Moscow. Leftover boundaries from these
overnight storms could help to generate more activity during the
day today in and around that area, and that is where we are
carrying the higher rain chances. More stability should exist the
further south and southwest you go, and that is where little to no
rain is expected. Afternoon high temperatures in/around the rain
areas should not be as warm as the rest of the area. With
mid/upper level high pressure building into the area as the rest
of the week progresses, low rain chances (generally 20% or less)
and increasing heat can be expected for a majority of us. We`ll
need to keep a close eye on heat index values that could approach
heat advisory values of 108 degrees. Models are still trying to
set up a western U.S. ridge and an eastern U.S trough over the
weekend, and this might allow for a weak frontal boundary to enter
our area and bring with it our next best chances of rain and
potential heat relief. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      96  77 100  77 100 /  30  10  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)              97  78  97  78  97 /  30  10  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            93  83  93  83  93 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...39



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