Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 170215
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
915 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.UPDATE...

Clear skies tonight. Enough mixing with pressure gradient at
surface to prevent ground fog as 850 mb low level jet moves across
southern Wisconsin.

&&

.MARINE...

Have issued a small craft advisory after midnight north areas and
around sunrise south areas. Core of 850 mb low level jet moves
across late tonight north areas and lingers south areas Tuesday.
Wind gusts may mix down enough for SCA type gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 616 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017)

UPDATE...

Clear skies tonight. Enough mixing with pressure gradient at
surface to prevent ground fog.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR SKC for this forecast period. Stronger WSW lower level wind
max moving through tonight with decent low level inversion so
looks like a favorable setup for some LLWS. Enough mixing at
surface to prevent fog.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 228 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday - Confidence...High
A dry and unseasonably warm period is expected. Moisture will be
meager with a trough passage Wednesday night. This set up a brief
shot of cooler air for a time into Thursday but no major cool-
down with this feature. Then southwest winds reload for Friday
ahead of a Plains storm system.

Saturday and Sunday - Confidence...Medium
Models continue to advertise our next potential rain maker. Mid
level trough approaches with a surface/850 front. Best window for
precip comes Saturday night into a good part of Sunday. So the
Superblend pops look pretty good given the consensus this far out.

Monday - Confidence...Medium
Secondary trough expected with a thermal ridge axis building back
up before shot of cold advection Monday night. Will stick with the
Superblend POPS for now which at least hints at a few showers.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR SKC for this forecast period. Stronger
WSW lower level wind max moving through tonight with decent low
level inversion so looks like a favorable setup for some LLWS.

MARINE...Will be monitoring the need for a small craft advisory
into midweek as pressure gradient tightens with increasing
south/southwest winds.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LMZ645-
     646.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Tuesday for LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Tuesday Night through Monday...Collar



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