Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 242025
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
325 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is High.

High pressure will remain in control of our weather regime
tonight, and begin to relinquish control on Tuesday. Diurnal
cumulus will continue to scatter out, lingering a bit longer over
far southwestern portions of the area before clearing after
sunset. Easterly winds will gradually subside this evening, with
southerly winds redeveloping across the area on Tuesday.

Moisture will begin to return Tuesday with temperatures returning
to around the 80 degree mark. A cold front located well to our
northwest will be a focus for showers/storms across MN into
northern WI and should stay out of our area.

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday and Thursday...Forecast confidence is Medium.

Aforementioned cold front will get a kick from a mid level
shortwave later Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is enough
deep layer shear and modest CAPE values to continue to mention the
risk for a few severe storms. Low level wind fields look messy, as
a result we are looking at mainly a wind/hail risk. The atmosphere
will once again be quite moist with precipitable water values are
2". As a result, there is concern for locally heavy rainfall. The
challenge is exactly where pockets of heavy rain will set up.
While difficult to pinpoint at this juncture, it is best to note
that this system should be progressive, but there is potential
for 1-2" of rain in spots Wednesday night.

Temperatures will be warm/muggy with highs in the 80s and heat
index values around 90 degrees (give or take).

Friday to Monday...Forecast confidence is Medium.

The medium range models continue to suggest a nice break from our
recent warm/muggy/rainy pattern. Upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts to the western CONUS while our region is nestled
beneath northwest flow aloft. This will result in at/just below
average temperatures, comfortable humidity and little if any
chances for rain through the weekend and quite possibly into early
next week too.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
High pressure is sinking further south across northern WI and
drier air is working into southern WI. The band of MVFR BKN to OVC
ceilings will continue to shift into southwest WI. Some
question with how long they will stick around but think they
should scatter out later this afternoon or evening. Elsewhere
across southern WI, expect clouds bases to become scattered around
2500ft with clearing skies this evening. VFR conditions are
expected later today or this evening through the remainder of the
TAF period. Northeast wind gusts around 20 knots will weaken this
afternoon. Some fog is possible in the favored areas late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
There will be a few northeasterly wind gusts to 25 knots this
afternoon, though a general weakening trend in winds is expected
heading into this evening as surface high pressure moves overhead.
Waves around 3 to 4 feet will linger into the early evening
hours. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

Winds will shift to southerly on Thursday with waves in the 1 to 2
foot range.

&&

.BEACHES...
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for a High Swim Risk
along the Lake Michigan Shoreline through this evening. This
means dangerous pounding waves and life-threatening currents are
expected at the beaches. People visiting the beaches should stay
out of the water.

Brisk northeast winds will build high waves along the shoreline.
Waves will taper off from north to south late this afternoon and
evening, so the counties in southeast WI have a later end time
than the northern counties.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ066-
     071-072.

     Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ052-
     060.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LMZ645-646.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Gagan/Marquardt
Tuesday Night through Monday...Gagan


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