Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 282129
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL WI WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS A SLOW-MOVING FRONT
SINCE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL AND THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING
DRIVING IT SOUTHWARD. THERE IS ONLY A NARROW LINE OF LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TODAY AND THEY HAVE BEEN PARKED OVER THE
REGION WITH RECENT SNOWFALL. THEIR SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WAS SLOWED
TODAY DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW.

THE NAM IS TRYING TO MOVE THE CLOUDS INTO THE MKX FORECAST AREA TOO
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO REALITY. AFTER DARK... THE CLOUDS
SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHWARD A LITTLE QUICKER... OVERSPREADING MOST OF
SOUTHERN WI BY MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND ON MONDAY. I AM EXPECTING THEM TO BECOME
SCATTERED/PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
FRONT AS THE SHALLOW LOW CLOUDS EXTEND INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SUPPORT FOR FLURRIES FROM A SEEDER FEEDER
PROCESS DUE TO MID CLOUDS ALOFT AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WI
FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LAKE WATER
TEMPERATURE/850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW... BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONVERGENCE ON
WEST SIDE OF LAKE AND A SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MODEL MEAN 1000-850 MB FLOW WILL BE NORTH NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL NOT BRUSH SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH BRINGING DRY AND
CHILLY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THE YEAR.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL THUS LIKELY SEE WIND
CHILLS REMAIN BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY...BUT ONLY THE GFS
BRINGS A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE NORTH...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF 2015.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AS THE
CANADIAN BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH...BUT IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY VIA
OTHER MODELS. THE GFS THEN CONTINUES TO BRING A STRONG LOW UP
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE TRACK SUGGESTING
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH KEEPING THE LOW WELL SOUTH AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DRY. THE CANADIAN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS
A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE ECMWF. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...LEFT
SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS DRY
THEN SUNDAY VIA EITHER MODEL SOLUTION.

SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. MVFR CLOUD
DECK WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN WI WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING OF THE CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING
AND ALSO CLOUD BASE HEIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WI. IT MAY
BE 2500 FT AGL ALL NIGHT RATHER THAN DROPPING TO 1500 FT AGL LIKE I
HAVE IN THE TAFS. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS/COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE MAIN
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE BACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV



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