Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 212001
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE UNTIL SUNSET...PER 1000/850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS IN MODELS AND HRRR CEILING FORECASTS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HIGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO MORE FROST IS EXPECTED EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NT AND INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU NT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EVENING. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AN EAST TO WEST
POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THU AM INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
CHANCES IN FAR ERN WI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THU. LOW POPS
WILL LINGER INTO THU NT WITH DRYING AFTERWARD. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NT AND FRI. IN ADDITION...A
DRY ATM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR
FRI.


.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SAT AHEAD OF A
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE POLAR TROUGH AND
SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...THUS THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SAT NT AND
TRANSITION TO SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUN. THE WAA PATTERN
IS DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FOR SUN NT AND MON. ONLY A WEAK N-S SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY LOW POPS FOR PCPN FOR MON-TUE...BUT
STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN...THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND BECOME EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW 25 KNOT GUSTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING



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