Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 280242
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
942 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A TRAILING COLD
FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...THEN
REACHING EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WEST WINDS KICK IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WITH UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER WITH THE GUSTY WEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
BROKENSTRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BUT
MORE LIKELY AROUND 35 HUNDRED TO 4 THSD FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE LOW PROGGD TO SHIFT FROM SW WI TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z.
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S
AND DEW POINTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. JET DYNAMICS INCREASING THOUGH
BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND 12Z ECMWF HAS
SHIFTED HEAVIER QPF MAX INTO NRN WI. STILL CANNOT IGNORE THE FRONT
AND THE STRONG JET PUNCHING INTO SRN WI. WILL BRING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS OF POPS THROUGH WITH THE FRONT. PER SPC MESO PAGE ENOUGH MUCAPE TO
KEEP THUNDER POTENTIAL GOING. UPSTREAM LTG DATA SUPPORT THIS AS WELL.
ONCE FRONT CLEARS WINDS TURN WEST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN
THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE. 500 MILLIBAR LOW TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING SRN WI IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. 925 TEMPS DROP
TO THE 5-7C RANGE AND WITH DECENT MIXING EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS AND
HIGHS FOR MANY AREAS WELL INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE/LL TRANSITION TO A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH SKIES GENERALLY ON THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE OF THE SCALE DUE IN
PART TO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING A BIT BELOW NORMAL...BUT IT WILL BE A DRY PERIOD.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE SAME TIME. THE GFS IS
KICKING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
DRY. THE GFS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE AND LIKELY TOO GENEROUS WITH THE
LIGHT QPF. WILL LIMIT ANY QPF TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND MENTION A
MIX OF LIGHT SNOW UP AROUND THE FOX VALLEY GIVEN THE THERMAL
PROFILE. COLDER AIR SPILLS IN AS A VERY CHILLY CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...COULD DROP INTO THE MID 20S. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A SHOT OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A
DEEPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...BROKEN MVFR CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SC
INTO SE WI AND SOME OF THIS TO BECOME VFR. EXPECT COMBO OF LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND NEWD MOVING JET STREAK TO GENERATE AT LEAST A BAND OF
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY IN THE 00-06Z TIME...WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SRN WI. ALSO WATCHING OTHER SHOWERS SPREADING NEWD
FROM IL. POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS KICK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE EXPECT MORE CLOUD
COVER WITH THE GUSTY WEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SCT-BKN CU
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH NORMALLY MOIST NAM SOUNDINGS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE.

MARINE...WILL LET CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL EXPIRATION.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL NECESSITATE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS



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