Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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809
FXUS63 KMKX 022015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD SEE SKIES EVENTUALLY TURN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
UNDER BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RIDES INTO SRN WI DURING THE EVENING AND PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH LATER IN THE NIGHT. SURFACE LOW/STRONG COLD FRONT
AND APPRECIABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE ALL IN PLAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE THE BIG FACTOR LACKING. NEVERTHELESS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A BAND OF SHRA WITH THESE FEATURES.
INVERTED-V LOOK TO SOUNDINGS WITH LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE. MESO
MODELS ALL SHOW DECENT BAND OF SHRA AND LIKELY SOME THUNDER. SO
BIGGEST IMPACT WOULD LIKELY BE FOR SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED NON-
SVR GUSTY WINDS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850/925 MILLIBAR THERMAL TROUGH WELL IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY AIDED
BY GUSTY 925 NORTHERLY WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. SEEING SOME NEGATIVE
CELSIUS NUMBERS AT 850 MILLIBARS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THE COLDEST SCENARIO. SECONDARY VORT MAX PROGGD TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD
ON WRN EDGE OF PRIMARY 500 MILLIBAR UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED
TO SRN LWR MI/NRN IN/NW OH VCNTY BY 00Z. EXPECT POP UP SHRA
POTENTIAL IN THIS PATTERN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SOME SOME SKINNY CAPE.
SEEING SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY ALL MODELS SO SOME SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND A NORTH BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A NOT SO NICE SPRING
DAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE CHILL EASES AS 925/850 WAA STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AND ACTUALLY
SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 850 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WRN/CNTRL WI
BY DAYS END FRIDAY. 925 TEMPS REACH ARND 10C THURSDAY AND PUSHING
20C DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVOLVING BY FRIDAY. DID A LITTLE
BOOST TO SUPERBLEND TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BETTER TREND TOWARDS THE WARM
PROJECTED 925 TEMPS.

.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIDGE FLATTENING SHORTWAVE RIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
MORE AMPLIFIED ON THE ECMWF AND ESP THE GEM. THIS SLIDES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SRN WI WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS. WARM 925 TEMPS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THOUGH 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO CRASH RATHER ABRUPTLY AS
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE FRONT ACCELERATES DOWN THE LAKE.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
POSITIONING OF NW/SE ORIENTED 850/925 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY ON
WHETHER SW CWA WILL BE CLIPPED BY ANY PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONT. THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PER CURRENT PROGS.
THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY IF SFC HIGH IS ABLE TO EXERT ENOUGH
INFLUENCE AND KEEP THE FRONTAL INDUCED PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR
NOW WILL RETAIN THE SLGT CHC/CHC SUPERBLEND POPS. WITH FRONT LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD BE A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN THE PRIOR TWO.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
500 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH RENEWED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARDS WI. THE GFS IS FASTER IN
BRINGING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH BACK INTO THE AREA AND WOULD
RESULT IN A RENEWED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STAYING MUCH FURTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
WI WITH PRECIP AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL IA. WILL STICK WITH SUPERBLEND
GUID ESP GIVEN THE MODEL DISPARITY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS THEN LIKELY
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER WITH THOSE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS LOOK TOO BORDERLINE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR



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