Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 151512

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
912 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018


We`ve had 3 to 5 inches over the western 2/3 of the forecast area
so far. The east is generally around 1 to 2 inches with a few 3
inches in there. Our focus through the day is the focused lake
band stretching from off shore of Milwaukee north into Manitowoc
right now. This will be a productive snow maker with visibilities
likely at 1/2 mi or less as it moves in. This band will gradually
turn more east to west in orientation and drift south through the
day, reaching the Milwaukee metro area for the evening rush hour.
This should add an additional 3 or so inches to our totals so far.
This band is mostly lake effect in origination right snow, but it
will become part of the sharp surface trough convergence axis
with time. That will allow for the snow to spread quite a ways
inland this afternoon into the evening. Overall, the forecast
remains on track. See our social media accounts for some of the
latest graphics depicting current and expected snowfall.



The small craft advisory remains in effect north of Port
Washington through today. The southerly winds are bringing high
waves to those area. A small craft advisory may be needed again
for Tuesday as brisk northeast winds bring high waves again. There
is ice in the nearshore waters making any marine activity


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 539 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018)

UPDATE...The forecast is on track for today and Tue.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Light to moderate snow will continue today
and tonight. Cigs of 1-3 kft will prevail. Vsbys will be variable
from 1-5SM depending on the intensity of the snow at the time.
Heavier snow is expected near Lake MI where vsbys of 1/4-1/2SM
could briefly occur.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 358 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018)


Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

The n-s sfc trough over sw WI will occlude as the upper low
approaches from MN. More specifically, the sfc trough will pivot
to a w-e sfc trough later today and then shift swd through the
area. The heavier snow will be associated with this feature with a
general light snow for this morning. Lake enhanced snow will
occur especially as the sfc trough shifts south across ern WI
this afternoon and evening. Forecasted snow accums from 12z today
into Tue AM is 3-7 inches for the lake counties with ern Sheboygan
County experiencing the highest amounts. A general 2-4 inches over
the remainder of srn WI with lesser totals sw of Madison. Winter
Wx headlines remain the same.

Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Mid level trough axis shifts to the east. Low level flow remains
favorable especially in the morning for lake effect potential.
However, mesoscale models are showing at least the heavier
snowfall remaining out over the lake. Will be a close call in our
lake counties. However enough potential still in place to not
change things up too much at this juncture, especially given the
fickle nature of convectively driven snow bands.

Wednesday through Friday - Confidence...Medium
Expecting moderating temperatures this period with little if any
precipitation expected. the only hiccup is the GFS which brings a
slightly stronger trough through Thursday night while the GEM and
ECMWF have much weaker or further north signals on this feature.

Saturday and Sunday - Confidence...Medium
Models show a little isentropic lift getting underway on Saturday
ahead of the next system in the central Plains but for now much of
the day looks dry. At this time the 00z runs of the GFS and ECMWF
are in remarkable agreement on the track of the surface/850 low
through the state Sunday and Sunday night which is a warmer track
for srn WI. The GEM, while faster, also shows the low tracking
well north. However last run of the GFS had a much colder look so
being about a week out, will be interesting to see how this system
continues to evolve over the numerous model runs yet to come.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Light to moderate snow will continue today
and tonight. Cigs of 1-3 kft will prevail. Vsbys will be variable
from 1-5SM depending on the intensity of the snow at the time.
Heavier snow is expected near Lake MI where vsbys of 1/4-1/2SM
could briefly occur.

MARINE...The brisk sly winds will weaken by later morning so the
Small Craft Advisory south of Port Washington will expire at 6 AM.
However, the Small Craft Advisory will continue until 6 PM as high
waves linger through the day. Another Small Craft Advisory may be
needed on Tue due to brisk nly winds and building waves.


WI...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ052-060-066-

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ046-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for WIZ059-065.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LMZ643.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Collar is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.