Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 152109
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
309 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017
.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... Forecast confidence is high.
Mid level clouds will continue to stream into southern WI tonight
with an area of 850-700mb warm advection and frontogenesis. Portions
of south central WI could see a few flurries or light snow showers,
but nothing measurable. This area of forcing will shift eastward
through the day Thursday, so expect breaks in clouds or even clear
skies by the afternoon.
Winds will be out of the southeast Thursday, so expect temps to
remain cooler near Lake Michigan, in the mid 30s max. Well inland,
sunshine and warm air advection will help temps warm into the lower
.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is high.
Upper ridging takes hold with building temps into the weekend.
We`ll see readings during this period that are more typical of
early April. Unfortunately, with Lake Michigan water temps
hovering in the mid 30s, expect much cooler conditions at times
close to the lake. Look for highs in the lower to mid 50s on
Friday and more like mid to upper 50s for the weekend. Friday and
Sunday will have the best chance for an onshore flow and cooler
conditions by the lake.
The EC looks to be handling temps the best and has done well with
other warm-ups recently. The NAM is way too cold and is suffering
from an unreasonable model snowpack that persists thru the cycle.
I think we`re on the conservative side for temps at this point and
we could see temps even warmer than forecast.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.
The upper ridge flattens and pushes east as a wave originating
from the Pacific Northwest heads into the western Great Lakes for
Monday into Monday night. An associated surface low will take a
very northern track, likely along the U.S./Canada border with a
weak frontal boundary sweeping through Wisconsin. That boundary
will be the focus for some showers as it moves through. Possibly
even a rumble of thunder given the high dewpoints this time of
year. Forcing isn`t impressive, so nothing major there. The
various long range models are having a lot of trouble with a
consensus. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF. The Canadian just
looks completely different at the surface compared to the other
two, with a surface low moving through the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley. Still very mild through early next week.
Mid level clouds will continue to stream into southern WI through
tonight. There could be a few flurries or light snow showers in
portions of south central WI with these VFR clouds, but no
Light easterly winds and decreasing mid level clouds are expected
Winds and waves will gradually subside through the evening as high.
pressure moves over the area. The next time small craft advisory
conditions are expected is early next week in the Monday night-Tue
TONIGHT/Thursday AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday...Davis