Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251633 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1133 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED LINE TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SURFACE FRONT. TIMING LOOKS LIKE
MADISON AREA 4 TO 5 PM... ALTHOUGH MANY MODELS WAIT UNTIL THE FRONT
IS EAST OF MADISON BEFORE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE LINE OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO ORIENT ITSELF FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER TIME. TIMING FOR SOUTHEAST WI LOOKS LIKE 5 TO 6 PM
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE AREA BY 8 PM.

SUNSHINE OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING AS MID CLOUDS MOVED
OUT. NOW THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TRACKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WI JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT. NOT SURE WHAT IMPACT THESE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEY APPEAR TO BE MIXING OUT AS
THEY HEAD EAST SO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD
CAPE IN AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR AND SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL THE
THREATS. THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO THREAT MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW MEETS UP WITH THE WARM FRONT AND
INCOMING FRONT. THE LAKE BREEZE IS STATIONED NORTH OF MILWAUKEE
TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO BROKEN VFR CIGS OF 3500-5000 FEET AS
THEY SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS JUST OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THEY
REACH SOUTHEAST WI SO EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE FRONT GETS EAST OF MADISON.

A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SEE THE LATEST TAF UPDATES FOR TIMING. CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED WITHIN THE STORMS. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND A LOW STRATUS DECK...BELOW 1000
FT...INTO SRN WI ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG OF 3-5SM.

&&

.MARINE...

A WARM FRONT WILL CUT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR PORT
WASHINGTON...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF IT AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF IT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY. LOOK FOR THOSE
WINDS TO TURN STRONG AND GUSTY LATER TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST BY TUE AFTN.  WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET TUE AM. THE
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED SOUTH OF NORTH
POINT LIGHTHOUSE WHILE FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE TUE EVE NORTH
OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER ERN SD WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO NW WI
LATER TODAY AND REACHES NRN LOWER MI LATE TNT. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI THIS EVE. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THIS AM AS THE CONVECTION OVER IA HAS DISSIPATED. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE TODAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S INLAND
FROM LAKE MI. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL WI WITH 70 TEMPS
AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER
SRN WI. THE MESOMODELS ARE PRODUCING A N-S BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFT...WHILE LINGERING INTO THE EVE
OVER ERN WI. THE CONVECTION IS FORMING WITHIN THE 850-700 MB THERMAL
RIDGE...WHILE IT WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD CENTRAL WI WHERE LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FOCUSED AT THE WARM FRONT. SLIGHT RISK LOOKS
GOOD WITH AN AVERAGE WSWLY WIND SPEED OF 50 KTS IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER OVERSPREADING THE AREA...YIELDING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FROM
40-50 KTS. THUS MULTICELLULAR AND SUPERCELLULAR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. SMALL PROBS OF
2 PERCENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND 0-1
KM BULK SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS. COLD FROPA WITH INCREASING NLY WINDS TO
THEN OCCUR LATE TNT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOOKS LIKE A COOLER PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. WITH ONSHORE WINDS FORECAST EVERY DAY...IT
WILL BE PARTICULARLY COOL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS
FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TEMPS MAY RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR COOLER
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY MOST
PLACES WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRINGING SOME SUNSHINE.

SIMILAR TO THE WED/THU SYSTEM...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS BY
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN
CHANCES ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN070-100 CLOUDS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY
TO SCT-BKN CUMULUS CONGESTUS AT 4-5 KFT THIS AFT INTO THE EVE AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES TO CENTRAL WI. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PASS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS AFT AND LINGER INTO
THE EVE. CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED WITHIN THE
STORMS. HOWEVER...LATE TNT WHEN THE COLD FRONT PASSES...NLY WINDS
WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK...BELOW 1 KFT...INTO SRN WI ALONG WITH
LIGHT FOG OF 3-5SM.

MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN LAKE MI EARLY TUE AM.
THIS WILL BRING BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS THAT WILL SHIFT TO THE NE
TUE AFT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET TUE AM. THE HIGHER WINDS
AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE
WHILE FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE TUE EVE NORTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC/DAVIS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV



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