Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 260842
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S
INLAND...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. LAKE BREEZE
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THERE AS WELL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 05Z
MONDAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASING 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE
POINTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AT
THAT LEVEL. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOWING ELEVATED CAPE
DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...UP TO 600 J/KG ON THE GFS AND OVER
1000 J/KG ON THE NAM. NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH 850 MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION/DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT ELEVATED CAPE VALUES.

STILL...ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DECENT
EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. LOWS SHOULD DROP A BIT IN THE EVENING...THEN
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD
CAP IN PLACE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. COULD STILL SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SO LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MILD
DAY...BUT CONCERNED A BIT AT HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING. IF STRATUS DOES SET IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WOULD
DEFINITELY SEE HIGHS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EITHER WAY
THOUGH...SHOULD SEE TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIKELY SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
AND INTO EARLY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
THERE WILL BE...SO JUST MENTIONED CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CUT BACK ON POPS EVEN MORE FOR TUESDAY...AS MOST MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND THEN TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVES...WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF
SITES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL
BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS. LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN SITES...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN. EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. ANY GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS AT BEST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AFTER A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...GIVEN THE OFFSHORE NATURE OF
THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



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