Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 260800
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



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