Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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676
FXUS63 KMKX 142333
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
533 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Fairly light winds and clear skies will set the stage for a quick
fall in temperatures into the mid teens this evening, before
readings level off as stratus begins to move overhead. A few
patches of flurries will be possible with the stratus, but no
accumulation or impact is expected.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will prevail for a few more hours before MVFR
ceilings move in later tonight. A few patches of flurries will be
possible as well late tonight and tomorrow, though coverage is too
low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Winds will also pick up from the west tomorrow, with rather gusty
conditions from mid morning into the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 305 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Friday - Confidence...Medium
A mid level shortwave along with a surface/850 millibar trough
will work through. Seeing some snow showers/flurries upstream on
radar mosaic so expect this to translate through southern WI
tonight. Model QPF is light but does support somewhat higher pops
in the northern CWA. Influence of this feature could linger into
the far eastern CWA in the morning. Influence of the trough
departs by midday or so though will keep flurries into the
afternoon as well with the start of some weak isentropic lift
returning.

Friday night and Saturday - Confidence...Medium
Pronounced WAA setting up which sets up a frontogenetically
induced band of forcing with QPF oriented along a NW/SE band across
mainly the northeast half of the CWA. Have focused the highest
POPS there for Friday night into Saturday morning. The forcing
then lifts off to the north. Areas around FDL and SBM could push
an inch with amounts trailing off to the southwest. So overall
this looks to be an inch or less type event. Milder 850 temps
surge into the area for Saturday afternoon. Could see highs
pushing the 40 degree mark in some areas though 3 hourly MOS
numbers look better at the moment.

Sunday - Confidence...Low to Medium
The GEM and ECMWF are still more robust with the low riding
northeast and associated QPF. Meanwhile the GFS is continuing the
dry look. Thicknesses support rain while 850 temps suggest snow or
a mix. So if we see anything out of this the airmass doesn`t look
real conducive to accumulating snow.

Monday through Wednesday - Confidence...Medium to High
Overall a quiet period here with main story being the passage of a
cold front Monday night. Could be on the blustery side come
Tuesday.

Wednesday night and Thursday - Confidence...Low to Medium
Models continue to show a potent storm system affecting the region
this period with the usual fine-tuning of the details a long ways
off from being finalized. However the models have been sending
this signal for a while now that a system would be targeting the
area in the 21st-22nd timeframe and with the trend continuing to
persist there is increasing confidence in this coming to fruition.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...VFR mostly SKC until cloud cover finally
works in tonight with mid level wave. MVFR cigs are then likely to
expand across the area per upstream cloud deck. Surface/850
trough swings through tonight which also will help in developing
snow showers. Best potential for these will be in the northern
CWA. Otherwise flurries.

MARINE...Close call for a small craft advisory later tonight
into Friday morning as gradient tightens up a bit. At this time
the period of potential higher gusts looks short and confidence
not high enough that criteria will be met. Offshore component as
well so wave action not expected to be a concern. So will hold off
for now. Coord with KGRB.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Friday Night through Thursday...99



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