Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 300240
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PARCHED THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER
PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
CIRRUS TO SRN WI. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS IN THE LATE MRNG/AFTN. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN 1-3
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER COASTAL AREAS EXTENDING
UP TO 5K FEET ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...TAPPING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS ONCE AGAIN...WITH STRONGEST WINDS
CLOSER TO SHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...NO CHANGE.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...NO CHANGE.

MARINE...EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE WIND POINT TO
WINTHROP HARBOR ZONE AS EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED THRESHOLD OF
22 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO MISSOURI WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
BEMAIN IN PLACE. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 60
DESPITE THE CLER SKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 90 KNOT SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TO
MODERATE VALUES FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 700 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS A WEST 700 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KNOTS FRIDAY. AN 18 DEGREE CELSIUS 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON FRIDAY AS
8950 MB DEWPOINTS ALSO RISE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO 1000
TO 1500 JOULES/KG ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND 700 MB DOES RESULT IN AN INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING. THE GFS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
OVERALL DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE. A DRY 700 MB BEGINS TO INCREASE A LITTLE TOWARD
EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW AND MIX OUT TOWARD
NOON...BUT RISE LATE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SECOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO THE 00Z ECMWF DROPS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA MORE INTO
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS NEAR SHEBOYGAN AND POSSIBLY
DOWN THROUGH MILWAUKEE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



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