Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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837
FXUS63 KMKX 181736
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1136 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.UPDATE...

Snow continues to push off to the east-southeast, and should clear
the southeastern corner of the CWA within the next hour. Cold and
blustery conditions are expected for the rest of the afternoon,
with temperatures holding steady in the mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Precipitation has ended for all but ENW, and should end for all
sites by 19Z. IFR cigs should improve to low end MVFR early this
afternoon, and will continue to improve going into this evening,
eventually lifting to VFR. Winds will remain gusty from the
north-northwest into tomorrow morning, settling down a bit and
becoming more westerly by mid day Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 1015 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017)

UPDATE...

Precipitation continues to push east through the area, with rain
mixing with and then changing to snow in most locations. A quick
half inch to perhaps inch of accumulation is possible on grassy
surfaces before ending around mid day. Road impacts should remain
minimal given road temps in the mid 30s, but a couple of slushy
spots aren`t out of the question on bridges/overpasses.

Besides the snow, expect gusty northwest winds to increase into
this afternoon, with a few gusts between 30 and 35 MPH, making for
a very raw day.

MARINE...
Gale Warning remains in effect through tonight, with Small Craft
conditions expected to persist following the Gales. Peak time for
winds will be this afternoon into this evening. Areas of snow will
also cause visibility restrictions this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 332 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017)

DISCUSSION...

TODAY - Confidence...Medium.

GFS/ECMWF blend used as this guidance showing much better run to run
consistency and agreement versus NAM.  Strengthening low pressure
passing by well to the south today.  Associated with the low is a
sharpening mid-level short wave and area of mid-level
frontogenetical forcing that will pass across southern Wisconsin
this morning.  Increasing northerly winds in the low levels will
pull colder air across southern Wisconsin through the morning.
Forecast soundings show likely potential for initial surge of rain
becoming mixed with or changing over to wet snow for an hour or two
between 12Z and 15Z, especially over south central WI.  Pavement
temperatures will remain above freezing, but strength of sloping
frontogenetical forcing may result in a burst of wet snow and
reduced visibilities with rapid accumulations on grassy and colder
surfaces.  The snow may change back over to light rain or drizzle
before ending later this morning and early afternoon.

TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High.

Dry and blustery conditions are expected tonight as the colder air
settles over the region.  Some lower clouds may stick around for
awhile in the cold northwest flow.

Sunday through Friday - Confidence...Medium to High
Overall quiet period with main forecast focus on temperature
swings. We`re seeing a nice uptick in temps for Monday then a
potent mid level trough drops in for Tuesday with a pronounced
surge of cold air advection. After that a moderating temp trend is
expected right through Friday. 925 temps are proggd to really ramp
up heading into Friday. A long ways off though enough support in
the guidance to suggest Superblend highs may be too low so a
collaborative boost was given to the Friday high temps.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Sunday THROUGH Friday...99



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