Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 020141
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
841 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS ALOFT WILL TURN A LITTLE MILDER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...SO WILL CONSEQUENTLY SEE MILDER TEMPS AT THE
SURFACE AS WELL. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

LAST VESTIGES OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROTECT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.  WED NGT INTO
THU...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER COLUMN
MOISTURE TO OOZE INTO THE REGION.  PWAT VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND AN
INCH BY THU.  SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE EJECTED OUT OF WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROF HELPING TO
FLATTEN RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS IA/WI/IL REGION.  WAVE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT CLIMBS RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD...HENCE WL REMAIN WITH
LOWER POPS FOR NOW.  WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE AS 925H TEMPS WARM TO
AROUND 17C ON THU.  HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS SLIGHTLY
IN CHECK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING TOWARD LOW.

NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF STRONG RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES STILL
APPEARS TO FLATTEN EARLY THIS PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  IN ADDITION...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON CARRYING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE RIDER
ACROSS IA INTO VCNTY OF NRN IL/SRN WI THU NGT INTO FRI.  FOR
NOW...WL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN SOUTHWEST CWA
CLOSER TO STRONGER S/W PASSING BY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SIMULTANEOUSLY... BACK DOOR CDFNT SLIDES THRU SRN WI WITH DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW AND RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.

QUIET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS NORTHERN PORTION
OF RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST QUICKLY SUCCUMBS TO AMPLIFYING MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SRN CANADA.  SOME TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BUT ESSENCE OF THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN
RETURNING CONVECTION THREAT TO SRN WI LATER IN WEEKEND.

GFS 5-DAY 500H MEANS TRENDS TOWARD NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
IN THE WEEK OF JUNE 8TH.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK


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