Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 252355
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
655 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Few light showers may affect parts of south
central WI later tonight as mid-level warm air advection spreads
into WI from the plains. Otherwise better chance for showers and
isold thunder later Friday. Still alot of questions regarding
where strength and location of passing short wave later Friday but
both GFS and NAM focus on southern CWA. For now wl use VCSH
remark in TAFS in the aftn but may be bumping up in later aviation
forecasts.

Introduced some fog to eastern areas later tonight as skies
expected to be mostly clear through late tonight as temps fall off
rapidly to near or slightly below cross over temperature. Boundary
layer winds drop off to less than 6 knots. Possible fog may become
locally dense in parts of eastern CWA after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 342 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Friday - Confidence...Medium

Surface ridge axis starts to shift to the east of the area
overnight. Expecting the lingering cu to die off diurnally. Prefer
the drier look of the NAM and GFS overnight. Next rain chance
arrives Friday with increasing waa and a mid level shortwave.
Models are all over the place on QPF placement so the Superblend
pops aren`t too bad. Notched temps down just a smidge with the
clouds and increasing rain chance spreading in. Latest Bufkit
soundings continue to show some CAPE rooted around 750 millibars
so will have some thunder mentioned.

LONG TERM...

Friday Night and Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Any lingering showers and storms will be out of southern WI by
late Friday evening.

Winds will begin light Saturday morning with high pressure
overhead. This will allow for a mid morning lake breeze, but
there could also be a northerly component to those winds which
would usher cooler air down into southeast WI by the afternoon in
the wake of that departing weak low. Limited high temperatures to
the mid 60s, but this could end up being lower, as there is still
some uncertainty between the models.

High pressure, warm advection, but limited sunshine will allow
temps to rise into the mid 70s well inland on Saturday. The chance
for showers will return to southern WI Saturday evening as weak
low pressure tracks through IL. There could be a few rumbles of
thunder with this chance of rain, but nothing severe.

Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Sunday is our best chance to see a soaking rain with 0.10 to 0.25
inch of precip. Timing is still uncertain, but it does not look
like an all day rain.

We will still have some instability over southern WI Sunday
morning out ahead of a weak cold front, so there is another chance
for showers. The cold front will slide through Sunday afternoon
and there could be enough convergence and instability to allow
for a few thunderstorms. Again, nothing severe. Sunday is our best
chance to see a soaking rain with 0.10 to 0.25 inch of precip.
Timing is still uncertain, but it does not look like an all day
rain.

Memorial Day through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Another upper low will roll across the Great Lakes area early next
week. Scattered instability showers are possible throughout the
period and can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder each afternoon.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Influence of the departing low starting to wane with drier air
taking hold. Cu field has become MVFR/VFR scattered to broken.
Nice inland push of lake modified noted vsbl satellite. Quiet and
VFR tonight into Friday morning. Pretty decent waa signal evolves
with 500 millibar shortwave approaching Friday late morning
through the afternoon so have some increase in POPS this period to
account for some shra/isold TSRA development. Seeing a few
hundred J/KG elevated CAPE so some thunder possible. MVFR cigs may
move into the western CWA during the afternoon.

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory expired at 3 PM. Some lingering onshore
component though overall trends in wave heights and gusts suggest
the expiration looks good.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Aviation...MBK
Tonight/Friday and Marine...PC
Friday Night through Thursday...MRC



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