Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 211132
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
532 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...The forecast is on track for today. The cold front is
moving sewd across central WI into srn WI this morning. Gusty nwly
winds are expected later this morning into the afternoon. Temps
will fall through the morning and become steady in the lower to
middle 30s for the afternoon.


&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Stratocumulus will develop after sunrise
and in the wake of a cold front. Bkn025-035 is expected by late
morning which will continue into the afternoon. However, enough
dry air and subsidence will lead to decreasing clouds from west to
east across srn WI during the afternoon. Gusty wly winds this
morning will become nwly by late morning with the passage of the
cold front.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 313 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High.

Strong low pressure will continue ewd across Ontario, Canada, then
newd across Quebec, Canada. A 100-120 kt nly jet will drive the
upper trough axis across srn WI this afternoon with the strong
cold frontal passage this morning. High temps will occur early
this morning then fall through the morning, but becoming steady
in the lower to middle 30s for the afternoon. Wind gusts to 30 mph
are expected. The broken stratocumulus behind the cold front over
MN should also develop sewd via the upper trough being driven swd
by the upper jet. The stratocumulus should then gradually decrease
from west to east during the afternoon but a few flurries could
occur. For tnt, the core of the polar high will track swd through
the Great Plains but its sfc ridge will extend nwd into the Upper
MS River Valley by 12z Wed. Thus expect winds to become lighter
through the night but not decouple. Lows in the upper teens to
lower 20s expected.

Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Some modification of low level thermal trough expected with winds
swinging around to more of a west or southwest direction. The
surface ridge axis starts off the day across IA/MN and then leans
more into the OH valley by days end. This will set the stage for
the return flow. not ready to jump on the wet NAM solution for
Wednesday night in this waa regime.

Thanksgiving - Confidence...Medium
A weak surface/850 trough passes through then the flow reloads
from the southwest as next low approaches from the northern
Plains. Looks like a steady period of modifying 925 temps right
into Thursday night.

Friday - Confidence...Medium
Thermal ridge amplifies ahead of the cold front. Should see many
temps reach the 50 degree mark with gusty southwest winds ahead
of the front. Could go even higher with ample sun, however cloud
cover and rain chances will be on the increase during the
afternoon/evening with the frontal boundary working through.

Saturday and Sunday - Confidence...Medium
Looking at a colder but dry weekend as northwest winds usher in
the chilly airmass. Windiest day is shaping up to be Saturday. As
Sunday wears along the surface ridge axis is proggd to shift
right across the state so that will make for a much lighter wind
regime.

Monday - Confidence...Medium
The high will end up in the Ohio Valley with a renewed southerly
flow setting up yet another low taking shape in the Plains. So we
should see some modification to the weekend chill though the south
winds will be gusty and the warmest 925 temps hold off to the west
and southwest of WI.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Stratocumulus will develop after sunrise
and in the wake of a cold front. Bkn025-035 is expected by late
morning which will continue into the afternoon. However, enough
dry air and subsidence will lead to decreasing clouds from west to
east across srn WI during the afternoon. Gusty wly winds this
morning will become nwly by late morning with the passage of the
cold front.

MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until 9 pm tnt
for brisk wly winds becoming nwly by late this morning. The
pressure gradient and unstable conditions over the lake will help
maintain wind gusts into this evening. High waves are expected
over the open waters.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Collar


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