Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 311952
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
252 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRATUS DECK MORPHED INTO CU FIELD. EXPECT THIS TO DIURNALLY DISSIPATE.
FOG POTENTIAL STILL THERE WITH OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME AND HIGH DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THERE IS A BIT MORE STIRRING OFF THE DECK SO NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO BE A CONCERN. MOS TEMPS APPEAR
REASONABLE.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AFTER ANY MORNING FOG ERODES 925/850 THERMAL RIDGE LEANS INTO THE CWA
WITH 925 TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SO EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 90. EVOLVING ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK A BIT LAKESIDE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU NT..

A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN CANADA AND THE
PACIFIC NW WITH RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN USA
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EXIST
WITHIN THE RIDGING AREA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SRN WI FOR LATE WED INTO THU. MLCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG FOR WED AFT WITH LITTLE
CAPPING...BUT ALSO LITTLE TO NO SFC CONVERGENCE. SOME MODELS DO
HAVE QPF AT TIMES ALTHOUGH MODEL AND MOS POP GUIDANCE IS VERY LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED NT
AND THU.

HIGH TEMPS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN
FORECAST DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS
OUT FOR THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL BELIEVE TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE
LOWER 90S.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
WEEKEND. THUS SMALL CHANCES OF TSTORMS ARE FORECAST AT TIMES BUT
WILL INCREASE ON LABOR DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MVFR CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND GUID STILL SUGGESTING
FOG DEVELOPS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
METMOS ON VSBY TRENDS. 850/925 THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO LEAN INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SW FLOW. NAM SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH
CU POTENTIAL.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH DEW
POINT AIRMASS OVER COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE. SOME UPTICK IN SOUTH
THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY BUT TRAJ FAVORS KEEPING FOG...SOME
DENSE...IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH POTENTIAL
LINGERING LONGER IN NORTHERN ZONES INTO TUE NGT. WITH GRADIENT
LOOKING OVERALL WEAK FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEAK MAY BE SEEING MORE
OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HEADLINES AS THE WEEK MOVES ALONG.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING



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