Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 172139
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
339 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017
.TONIGHT... Forecast confidence is medium.
One more upper trough is swinging through WI this afternoon. An
inverted surface trough is lingering over southern WI as well.
Scattered light rain showers are ongoing within the deformation and
vorticity advection. These will track through the area from west to
east through mid evening.
Temperatures are hovering just above freezing. Pavement temps are in
the mid 30s, but these should fall a notch with loss of daylight. I
expect temperatures to hover just above freezing until this rain
moves out, so no mention of freezing rain. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 20s, so any wet roads and sidewalks without treatment have
a high likelihood of re-freezing overnight. I`ll handle this with
a special weather statement.
.WEDNESDAY... Forecast confidence is high.
It looks like clouds will linger a little longer than the previous
forecast. However, dry air will allow for some sunshine. A push of
warm air will lead to highs around 40.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence...High
Departing high pressure should keep it dry across southern
Wisconsin Wednesday night and Thursday. Above normal temps will
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium to High
A shortwave will approach Thursday night, lifting through the
forecast area on Friday. The surface low will either clip the
south or move just south of the state. Model precipitable water
values approach an inch with this system, pretty moist for
January. Models in pretty good agreement with the timing of this
system, bringing rainfall into the southwest by late evening. The
rain is then expected to spread northeastward overnight, winding
down later Friday morning into the afternoon. Not out of the
question to see a little freezing rain or sleet mix in briefly in
the north toward the beginning and end of the precip, but this
mainly looks like a rain event.
.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium to High
Above normal temperatures will continue over the weekend and into
early next week. Mildest temps are expected over the weekend, with
highs approaching or even cracking 50!
Low pressure to the west could bring a few showers on Saturday,
through it looks mainly dry. Better chance for rain comes later
Sunday into Monday as a stronger low passes by to the south.
Models show dry weather then Tuesday between low pressure systems.
Low ceilings will persist through the night and gradually improve
Wed morning as clouds scour out. A round of light showers will track
through southern WI late this afternoon into the early evening. Look
for temperatures to drop below freezing after the rain ends, but wet
pavement will be at risk for freezing once again. Dry weather for
the remainder of the TAF period.
Southwest winds will increase on Wednesday, but conditions are
expected to remain below small craft advisory levels.
TONIGHT/Wednesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday...DDV