Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 211657
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND THE SHOWERS
WILL END. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH AREAS OF FOG
ELSEWHERE. NICE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES INTO WEST
CENTRAL CANADA...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK TO A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK. SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...MAINLY A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL BRING THE
ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

ONLY ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...AND UPPER
RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WOULD FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SOME MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN/RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.
CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS PATCHY FOG...AND SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE
IT. TEMPS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH...850MB CLIMB TO AROUND 10C VS. 5C
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...TO HOLD OFF ANY FROST MENTION OVER THE NORTH.

AFTER A DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE
DRY FORECAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WHAT WAS LEFT OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...EJECTS OUT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CROSSES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID-
WEEK...THEN WEAKENS AND TRIES TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...AND HOW FAR EAST THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ABLE TO PUNCH INTO THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY CARRY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS DRY ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WESTERN WI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S (NORTH) AND 70S (ELSEWHERE) ARE EXPECTED...WITH A
FEW 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID-
TEENS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THEN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. AFTER FOG DISSIPATES EARLY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN VFR SCATTERED CU CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH A WESTERLY WIND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......ALLEN






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