Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 140914
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
414 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MN TO DROP INTO NORTHERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN PASS INTO LOWER MI BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WI...THOUGH
MAIN AREA OF PCPN WITH LOW CURRENTLY OVER MN ARROWHEAD. MODEL
CONCENSUS RATHER GOOD...HAVE FOLLOWED NAM/GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.

MAIN CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST WAS PUTTING THUNDER BACK IN. CAPE
VALUES FROM 200 TO 400 WITH MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOWING SKINNY CAP
ABOVE 9H. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO NEAR 7 THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS TO LEAD TO SMALL
HAIL WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. PCPN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING.
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW
EXITS INTO EASTERN CANADA. SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
IN EAST AS VORT ENERGY CIRCLES LOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS DO SHOW WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONTEMPLATED ADDING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS MAY BE A TAD BIT TOO DRY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST AT LAND O LAKES WITH
A LOW AROUND 35. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DID
ADJUST UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS. TEMPERATURES
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...
WITH BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF NC/C/NE WI...AND ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN WI. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY
IMPACT FAR NC WI LATE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR OVER NC/C WI MONDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






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