Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 272024
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
324 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA DRY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE
COULD REACH CENTRAL...AND POSSIBLY NORTH CENTRAL...WISCONSIN
AROUND DAYBREAK. ENDED UP WITH A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE IN THE NIGHT. HAVE POPS INCREASING AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS MOST MODELS
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY UNTIL MORE
STORMS GET GOING IN THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR THE
TIMING ON THIS RIGHT NOW SO JUST HAVE DECREASING POPS FOR A WHILE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING THEM A BIT AGAIN AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION COULD PUT A DAMPER
ON STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY.

CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTIVE TRENDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...BUT NOT SURE IF IT WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM OF THE FCST
AREA OR ALREADY OCCURRING OVER NC/C WI. REGARDLESS...H8 WAA...A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A S/W TROF SHOULD GENERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT A
CLUSTER OF STORMS CONCENTRATED OVER CENTRAL WI DURING THE
EVG...WITH PERHAPS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN WI OVERNIGHT. SPC STILL HAS GRB CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SVR TSTMS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. THE NIGHTTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL (15-25 KTS) IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
ALSO...WET-BULB ZERO HGTS WILL BE HIGH...AROUND 12-13K FEET...SO
LARGE HAIL IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE
THE MAIN SVR CONCERN...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALES INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES AND
H8 DEW POINTS RISE TO +16 TO +18 C. PCPN CHANCES WILL END EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST.

EXPECT CLEARING SKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME MIXING COMBINING
WITH H9-H8 WINDS OF 25-35 KTS TO PRODUCE A WINDY DAY...WITH
WESTERLY GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH PCPN CHANCES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...AS
ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OVERALL...EXPECT NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WISCONSIN SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNEVENTFUL TODAY AND AT LEAST
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z TUESDAY. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
BUT ONLY EXPECT MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES AROUND SUNRISE. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR...AND ISOLATED IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG


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