Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 271637
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1037 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday
Issued at 327 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Dense fog and some icy roads are the main concern early today.
The fog is most dense where there is still snow on the ground.
The fog should either mix out or lift into a low cloud deck by
9am or 10am. Warm advection in the low levels should produce high
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal.

Approaching upper system will bring a steady rainfall to the area
tonight and Monday, though there may be a lull in the activity
during the middle of the day Monday. Thunder is not out of the
question at some point, but decided to leave it out. Temperatures
tonight will be held up well above normal due to cloud cover and
southeast wind from Lake Michigan. Highs Monday could reach 50F in
east central counties if there are any peeks of sunshine, but it
will be very mild across the area even if there isn`t.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 327 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that an upper
level low pressure system will create an unsettled weather pattern
through the next work week before it vacates the area. The overall
temperature trend will call for a gradual cool down over the next
week after a warm start.  Should therefore see precip transition
from all liquid early in the week, to an all snow or a mix of rain
and snow by mid to end of the week.  Will continue to favor the
ecmwf over other guidance based on comparisons to the ensemble means.

Monday night through Tuesday night...Widespread rain is expected on
Monday night ahead of an occluded front, which will sweep across the
area late.  The heaviest rain will occur over eastern WI in a region
where upper divergence is maximized.  Once the rain exits late, will
likely see a break in the precipitation, at least over eastern WI,
until deeper moisture arrives beneath the upper low on Wednesday.
Until this occurs, will see only a small chance of rain on Tuesday,
and a chance of a rain/snow mix on Tuesday night over north-central
WI. Eastern WI will likely see partial clearing on Tuesday and
Tuesday night.  No significant changes to temps.

Rest of the forecast...Chances for rain and snow showers will
gradually be spreading east across north-central and northeast WI on
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Then the upper troughing will bring
occasional snow showers to the region on Thursday into Friday.  As
mid-level heights finally rebound on Friday night into Saturday,
should see drier air move in from the west and provide some clearing
for next weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

As typical of this time of year, the fog was stubborn this morning
across much of central, north-central and far northeast Wisconsin.
As of 16z...visibilities down to near zero were reported at KCLI,
KPCZ, KY50. Do not see the fog eroding until early to mid
afternoon. Otherwise, poor flying conditions expected into
Tuesday due to rain, wind or low clouds. Rain should arrive into
central Wisconsin by 00z tonight, then across much of the area by
mid to late evening. Rain or drizzle will continue into Monday
night.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>021-030-031-036-037-045-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Eckberg



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