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000
FXUS63 KGRB 010444
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1044 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SATURATION
ISSUES AND WEAK FORCING IN OUR AREA WILL ONLY KEEP THE CHANCE OF A
FEW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE ENERGY...AND A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN IN
THE AFTERNOON... HOWEVER SATURATION ISSUES AND QUITE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT ANY SNOW ACTIVITY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT WILL JUST MENTION FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
WILL BE HARD TO GET ANY MEASURABLE SNOW...SO WILL NOT CARRY ANY
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPS LOOK TO FALL THIS EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS
THEN LOOK TO STEADY OUT AND/OR CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FIRST. FAR NORTHERN WI MIGHT SEE TEMPS DROP
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WON`T BE AS COLD AS
TODAY...WITH MOST SPOTS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM WAUTOMA TO IRON MOUNTAIN COULD TOUCH THE FREEZING
MARK.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REACHING
THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW NOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD COMBINE TO
PRODUCE A MODERATE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND A HALF INCH TUESDAY
AND IF THEY DO WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD PRODUCE
SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE CLIMBING
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
VILAS COUNTY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES DUE TO
ALMOST COMPLETE ICE COVER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A COUPLE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NW
WINDS. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ESB