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000
FXUS63 KGRB 180316
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1016 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ONGOING CONVECTION IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM...FOLLOWED BY FROST POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED AS A SHORT WAVE MOVED INTO AN AREA
WITH SURFACE TO 1500M LAPSE RATES IN THE 8.5 TO 10 K/KM
RANGE...CAPES AROUND OR A LITTLE GREATER THAN 1000J/KG...LITTLE OR
NO CIN...AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO AROUND 50 KTS. THIS
CONVECTION WAS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AT 19Z.

ONCE THE SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR. WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR NORTH TO COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY
FROST TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE CLOUDS
CLEAR THERE...AND NIGHTS ARE RATHER SHORT THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
THE SUMMER SOLSTICE ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY.

A COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND SURFACE FLOW
WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...SO DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IT
WILL BE COOLER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN IT WAS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. FLOW WILL THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A
BLOCKING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WEAKENS AND ALLOWS
PACIFIC ENERGY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK/THIS
WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF WISCONSIN...BUT THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PROGRESS...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND
THE CHANCE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S LATE THIS EVENING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
TEND TO STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE BEFORE
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH CAN WORK INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH/MG
AVIATION.......TDH