Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 231757
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1257 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF AUTUMN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN IN MORE OF A LATE SUMMER RATHER THAN FALL MODE FOR
THE FIRST FULL DAY OF AUTUMN...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL N OF
THE FCST AREA. THEY WL REMAIN THERE THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD...
AS STG POSITIVE UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY BECOMES LOCKED-IN NR JAMES BAY.
THAT WL RESULT IN ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT/S ALSO A DRY
PATTERN. SIG MOISTURE WL REMAIN WELL S OF THE AREA AND FORCING WL
BE WEAK...SO THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHC FOR SIG PCPN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VERY QUIET AUTUMN WX. BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE PRODUCTS TYPICALLY
DO WELL IN SITNS SUCH AS THIS. LEANED TOWARD THOSE WITH THE
FCST...WITH THE TYPICAL MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR SLY FLOW UP THE
LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ACRS MAINLY C/N-C WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TNGT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES A PRETTY STABLE PATTERN
SHAPING UP OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CONTINENT. WILL SEE
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND ALSO
OVER GREENLAND...WHILE RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MEAN RIDGING WILL PROTECT THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTION. FOR
LATER PERIODS...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL SUFFICE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SHEARING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY THOUGH MODELS PREDICT SOME
SATURATION ABOVE 800MB OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A SHOWER. THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS FURTHER ON
THURSDAY AS MID AND UPPER MOISTURE THINS OUT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST. THEN QUIET AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH
NIGHTS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE
PRESENT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY STEADY
OVER THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.  START
TO SEE SOME HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DRY AIR WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME.  NO RUSH TO ADD PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR DURING THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT SOME CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ABOVE 3000 FT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO
SOME FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATE AND BURN OFF AROUND 12Z. CLOUD
BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG





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