Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 280417
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1017 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO PROVENCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING EDGE OF DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD
HAS EXITED FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. GENERALLY MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL HAS RANGED FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH A COUPLE 7 TO 8 INCH
AMOUNTS REPORTED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10. ELEVATED WARM LAYER MADE IT
A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS IMMEDIATELY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE GREEN BAY AREA WERE HELD IN CHECK WITH
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OBSERVED.

BACK EDGE OF LINGERING STRATUS DECK NOW ENTERING WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS AREA OF CLEARING SHOULD MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS
CONTINUE...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
GUIDANCE FORECAST LOWS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...THUS
TRIMMED BACK OVERNIGHT LOWS ACCORDINGLY THERE.

MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN A RATHER CHILLY
START ON SUNDAY MORNING...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH
ABOVE 30 DEGREES F ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE TEENS ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE
DEEPEST FRESH SNOWCOVER EXISTS. AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
FOX VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND WILL BECOME ORIENTATED FAVORABLY FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER VILAS COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

QUIET AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THE STATE MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKS
LIKE THE DECIDING FACTOR WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF A MIDLEVEL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IF IT CAN ENHANCE LIFT ALONG
THE ARCTIC FRONT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE AND
THUS...NO PRECIP. GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...REMOVED POPS ON MONDAY AND ADDED
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LATER SHIFTS CAN PUT THEM BACK IF MODELS
SWING BACK TO THE LIGHT SNOW SOLUTIONS. IF SNOW WERE TO FALL WITH
THIS FEATURE...IT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND CAUSE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

WESTERN RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AND DRY AIR TO SETTLE IN OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US BY MIDWEEK. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE STARTING MONDAY AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE
STATE. AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES
DROP...A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLDER TEMPS IS EXPECTED STARTING
TUESDAY AS CAA CRANKS UP. COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD BE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...TUESDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE VERY
COLD PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET. AFTER
WEDNESDAY...SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WAA OUT OF
CANADA ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT WARM UP...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWOODS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

THE REMAINING AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEPART EASTERN
WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT.  AFTER A PERIOD OF SKC TONIGHT...A BAND OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. PATCHY MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OVER
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
WELL...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......ALLEN
AVIATION.......TDH





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