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000
FXUS63 KGRB 230418
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1018 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...A SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL ALL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS
WERE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST TOWARD MORNING...WHICH BLENDS PRETTY WELL WITH
SURROUNDING FORECAST GRIDS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BUFKIT INDICATED A DRY LAYER AT RHINELANDER
WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR AND AMOUNT OF LIFT. A DEEP DRY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN ICE CRYSTAL SUBLIMATION BEFORE THEY FALL INTO THE
MOIST AND COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE
THAT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SNOW ALONG WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY 00Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT. THE 12Z NAM AND
GFS HAD QPF IN THE NORTH BUT WIND DIRECTION AND DELTA T VALUES DO
NOT SEEM FAVORABLE. EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW FOR CENTRAL...FAR NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN IN THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO...HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW THERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISC ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL DELIVER A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT THAT TIME. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT IN NORTHERN WISC WHERE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD LINGER INTO THE DAY ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

AS THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES EAST AND CONSOLIDATES WITH A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...A SECOND
CANADIAN LOW WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND BRING A
DECENT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SNOW
WILL END BY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MVFR CIGS PROGRESSING ACROSS ERN WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...WHILE
THE BACK EDGE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO WRN WI. EXPECT TO SEE
THIS BACK EDGE REACH CNTRL WI AROUND 15Z AND ERN WI AROUND 17Z.
ANY VFR CONDITIONS WL BE BRIEF AS A CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEP
ACROSS NE WI ON FRI. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW PUSH
ACROSS NRN WI MID TO LATE MORNING AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI IN THE
EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. CIGS ARE FCST TO RESIDE IN
THE IFR/LOW-END MVFR THRU THE PCPN EVENT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE
MVFR CIG CATEGORY INTO FRI NGT AS CAA TAKES OVER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......AK