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000
FXUS63 KGRB 261154
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
554 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
MOVE BACK INTO VILAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS WINDS TURN NNW. MODELS
SHOW ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 950-850 MB TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT...AND SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS
ARGUES FOR LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WILL JUST
MENTION SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
WATCH TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER BITTER COLD NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH