Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 092114
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
314 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A STG RIDGE NR
THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP TROF OVER ERN NOAM. THE CURRENT PATTERN
WL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN DEAMPLIFICATION WILL
BEGIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN RETURN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AT TIMES...BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AMNTS WL BE LGT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
LAKE-SUPERIOR SNOWBELT...WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW TRENDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED EAST OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST
TO PASS EAST OF WISCONSIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 12Z GFS AND 12Z
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOCUSED ON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIME FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES. STILL...CHANCE OR HIGH END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAINED FOR MTW OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SEE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 850MB WIND DIRECTION
WAS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT THERE AND
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. HAVE LITTLE DATA IN MY FORECAST AREA ON WHICH TO BASE A
DECISION ON AN ADVISORY BUT DID GET AN ESTIMATE OF 1.5 INCHES IN
PRESQUE ISLE TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 1830Z. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS IN IRON COUNTY WI AND GOGEBIC MI CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR
HAD TOTALS IN THE 18 TO 24 INCH RANGE FOR THE 24 HOURS ENDING THIS
MORNING. BUMPED UP QPF FOR NORTHWEST VILAS BUT STILL DID NOT END
UP WITH ENOUGH SNOW IN ANY PERIOD TO VERIFY AN ADVISORY...SO HAVE
OPTED TO LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 21Z TODAY.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER AIR TO THE
STATE...AND LOWS TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE COLDER THAN
THEY WERE EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL KEEP
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN FROM FALLING TOO MUCH BELOW ZERO THERE.
LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS
TO MINNESOTA SHOULD KEEP WINDS GOING TONIGHT. CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BORDERLINE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA...NEAR -20...LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ONE
SINCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BORDERLINE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

OTHER THAN LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT...QUIET BUT COLD WX IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY. MODELS GENERATED SOME LGT PCPN MAINLY S AND W OF THE AREA
WHERE UPPER SUPPORT IS A LITTLE BETTER...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME LGT SNOW ACRS THE FCST AREA INVOF THE
FRONT. HANDLED IN THE FCST AS JUST FLURRIES FOR NOW. CAA WL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS STG ANTICYCLONE DROPS SEWD FM CANADA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF AND GFS-BASED MOS
PRODUCTS WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD SURGE DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF REMAINS COLDER. THE STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING
ANTICYCLONE AT THE CENTER OF THE COLD AIR MASS...THE VERY HIGH
LATITUDE AT WHICH IT ORIGINATES...AND THE SPEED AT WHICH IT COMES
BARRELING SOUTHEAST WOULD ALL SEEM TO FAVOR THE ECMWF. IF THAT/S
CORRECT...THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OF THIS
ROUND OF COLD WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CIGS PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT MIDDAY...WITH AREAS
OF MVFR. SNOW WAS REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR...AND OCCASIONALLY IFR.
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WAS THE EXCEPTION WITH PLENTY OF LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR
VSBYS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN MOST AREAS AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY
PASSES TO THE EAST OF WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. LAKE EFFECT
SHOULD DECREASE A BIT AS WELL...THOUGH WIND DIRECTION REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG


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