Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 260806
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
306 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AT 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM AROUND CRIVITZ
TO SHAWANO TO WAUTOMA AND STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD. AREAS RADARS
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN GRADUALLY MOVING
TOWARD PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION SHOWERS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDER THIS AM.
FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NOTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION WILL ONLY BE IN THE MORNING.

NEXT ISSUE CONCERNS ANOTHER PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA PROGGED TO SLIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING OVER
A DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION...SO WILL CONFINE MENTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. MODEL JET STRUCTURE IN
QUESTION...BUT UPPER JET SUPPORT COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL

CLOUDS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES THE LAST ISSUE. APPEARS AFTER THE
FROPA THIS AM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING...OR AT
LEAST START CLEAR TODAY. CU BEGINS TO APPROACH SCT-BKN LEVELS OVER
THE THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS H850 TEMPS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS H850 FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND IS ANOTHER
REASON TO ADD SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES
OVER.

TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THEN EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEAN FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WEEK TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A CUT-
OFF WEAK UPR TROF DRIFTING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES (WED NGT) TO SRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES (THIS WEEKEND). PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE
OVER NE WI AHEAD OF THIS UPR TROF (AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES). A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROF TO DRIVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT
OUR WEATHER NEXT MON. TEMPS APPEAR TO AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

THE SFC HI SLIPS FARTHER EAST WED NGT AND ALLOWS MOISTURE WHICH
HAS BEEN POOLING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...TO START EDGING
NEWD INTO SW WI. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE FCST AREA AND
WL NEED TO WATCH THE LEADING EDGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS (ASSOCIATED WITH
WAA) MAKE A MOVE TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. MAY ADD A TOKEN POP
TO WOOD/WAUSHARA COUNTIES...BUT EXPECT THE DRY FCST TO HOLD THRU
THE NGT AS THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD TO STILL BE DRY. MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S FAR NRN WI...TO THE MID 50S OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI WHERE THE CLOUDS TO REACH FIRST.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FCST TO EJECT NE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WL INTERACT WITH THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO BRING A PRETTY GOOD CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES TO AGAIN BE UP IN THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE...THUS HEAVY
RAINFALL WL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE RAISED POPS THROUGHOUT NE WI WITH
LIKELY WORDING FOR CNTRL WI. DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN ANTICIPATED...
THU LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE.

MDLS INDICATE A SURFACE WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE WRMFNT INTO WI THU
NGT ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT. HIGHEST POPS
PLACES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA (CLOSER TO THE WRMFNT
AND APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE). ONCE AGAIN...SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY
BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH PW VALUES PUSHING 2.0". PCPN CHCS TO CARRY
OVER INTO FRI AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ENUF INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER WI TO JUSTIFY THE MENTIONING
OF TSTMS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED COMPARED TO THU/
THU NGT. MAX TEMPS TO BE PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER THAN THU
WITH LOWER 70S TO BE MOST COMMON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS TO LINGER THRU SAT NGT AS A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF HOOKS UP WITH THE NEARLY CUT-OFF SHORTWAVE TROF
WHICH WL HAVE MOVED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY.
THERE WL BE DRY TIMES IN THIS STRETCH...BUT TRYING TO DETERMINE
WHEN REMAINS QUITE A TASK. HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
WHICH KEEPS CHC POPS IN THE FCST FROM FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PCPN CHCS...IT WOULD BE THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NGT TIME FRAME WITH WEAK UPR RIDGING MOVING THRU THE REGION. PCPN
CHCS WOULD THEN RETURN LATER ON MON AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM SWEEPS
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AS WE HEAD INTO SEPT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE 06Z TAFS IS TO ADD A BROKEN DECK
AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT AT KRHI. CLOUDY SHIELD APPROACHING
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND COULD MOVE OVER
THIS SITE. AFTER 16Z TUESDAY...SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 14 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. STILL MUCH DEBATE IN
WHEN LAKE BREEZE WILL ARRIVE AT KMTW. STILL HAVE 22Z FOR NOW...
BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST TIMING LATER TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE HUMID AIR MASS FINALLY GETTING PUSHED TO THE SOUTH
TODAY AND WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NOT FAR AWAY.
PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT CLIMBING TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A H850 WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN. PROGS SUGGEST
A RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY ADD TO THE SUPPORT FOR THIS HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. ITS BEEN A GOOD PERIOD OF TIME SINCE THE LAST
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN. RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AND CAN
HANDLE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN AREAS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE A FEW MORE
MODEL RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TRENDS FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TDH








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