Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 241657
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1157 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

PCPN TRENDS...HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING CONCERNS...TSTM CHANCES...
MARINE HEADLINES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FCST CONCERNS THIS
MORNING.

A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WAS AFFECTING AREAS
FROM MOSINEE...MARSHFIELD AND STEVENS POINT EASTWARD TO AROUND
OCONTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS BEING DRIVEN
BY WAA AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. A MUCH MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WAS ORGANIZING
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN...AND PUSHING INTO NW WI. THIS WILL
MOVE ACROSS NC/NE WI THIS MORNING...AND BRING THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO NORTHERN WI.

MODELS AGREE ON SHIFTING A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NORTHERN
WI TODAY...AND LOCKING IT IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 1 INCH) WILL COMBINE WITH PERSISTENT
WAA/ISENT LIFT AND PERIODS OF STG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO
GENERATE OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER MAINLY NORTHERN WI. PCPN WILL
EVENTUALLY FILL IN OVER C/EC WI ON MONDAY AS A SFC LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF A LINE FROM TOMAHAWK TO LAONA TO AMBERG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FCST...AS MODELS SHOW
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FCST AREA
THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE OVER
C/EC WI ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES AND A WARM
FRONT SETS UP JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. SBCAPES OF 250-500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...
AND WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH EAST FLOW AND STEADY RAIN KEEPING
HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE WARM FRONT BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND A LITTLE
WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DUE TO COOL
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AND/OR THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.
HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
ONLY IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THEIR WAY OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN IN THE NORTH MAY CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE
COMING TO AN END THERE. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AROUND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE
NEXT APPROACHING 500MB AND SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO A SMALL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH...AS THE MAIN SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES PASS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME SNOW OR A MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL RIDGE BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER BACK FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LIKELY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

GUSTY ENE WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES WILL RESULT IN
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES
BY THIS EVG...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORKING THEIR
WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS NE
WINDS INCREASE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NC/FAR NE WI...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF A TOMAHAWK TO LAONA TO AMBERG LINE...THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
IF THIS MUCH RAIN MATERIALIZES...IT WILL CAUSE SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS TO RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL. WILL REISSUE THE
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
MARINE.........KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH



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