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000
FXUS63 KGRB 162007
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
307 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z...WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
THERE WERE SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WITH THE STORMS IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND WEST OF DULUTH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND WERE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS SHOWED MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000J/KG RANGE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29...AND THERE WAS PRETTY
MUCH NO CIN AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM
12Z GRB/INL/MPX SOUNDINGS WERE BELOW 10000FT SO HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AND KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
TRICKY AND DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...IN ADDITION TO THE SPEED OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FROST POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK/WEEKEND...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...
WITH DRY WEATHER AND BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE COLDEST
NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST BEEF UP THE FROST
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO MIDWEEK.

PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK...AS THE SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS. CURRENT TRENDS
SUGGEST ONLY LOW PCPN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN WI WEDS NGT INTO THU NGT...
AND ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY.
THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO SUNDAY...DUE TO WSW ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM RHINELANDER
TO MARINETTE. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SOUTH OF A SURFACE FRONT. THESE STORMS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVED TOWARD THE AREA. GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...DUE TO DEEP
MIXING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WERE RATHER LOW ON 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM INL/MPX/GRB SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH THE STORMS.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG