Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 142040
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
240 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

VERY MILD AND FOGGY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN A TEMPORARY RETURN
TO COLDER WEATHER FOR MID-WEEK.

SPLIT FLOW WL CONT ACRS NOAM THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. OTHER
THAN A SHRTWV BREAKING AWAY FM THE NRN STREAM AND CROSSING THE
AREA DURING THE WEEK...THE FCST AREA WL REMAIN EITHER BETWEEN THE
MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW OR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SRN
STREAM.

TEMPS WL START OUT VERY MILD...DROP BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL BEHIND
THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV THAT CROSSES THE AREA MID-WEEK...THEN WARM
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL END UP NR OR A LITTLE BLO
NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE LINGERING
FOG AND THE TIMING OF PRECIP WITH A SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY.

FOG AND DRIZZLE HAS BEEN A NUISANCE OVER NE WISCONSIN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW OVER THE COLDER GROUND AND
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. SOME IMPROVEMENT NOTED TODAY
IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL AS ALONG THE LAKESHORE DUE
TO LIMITED OR NO SNOW COVER. LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GO FOR
AREA WHERE SNOW COVER WAS ZERO.

LOOKING AHEAD AT THE FOG...AREAS THAT HAVE FOG NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONTINUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH NOON MONDAY. IN AREAS WHERE VISIBILITIES
IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WAA AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SO DESPITE ZERO SNOWPACK...CONDITIONS STILL
PRIME FOR FOG. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT HANDLE ANY ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES FOR AREAS WITHOUT ADVISORIES IF AS VSBY TRENDS DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR AND AND A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST CAUSES FOG TO DISSIPATE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A SYSTEM THEN MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS MOISTURE AND FORCING INCREASE OVER THE AREA. NOTHING
TOO EXCITING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY WITH PRECIP BEING
LIGHT AND REMAINING AS ALL RAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD DO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLUCTUATING TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER DOMINATES OVER THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

STG SRN STREAM SHRTWV EJECTING NEWD FM THE SRN PLAINS WL BRING
PCPN TO THE FCST AREA MON NGT AND TUE. A LOT OF MOISTURE WL BE IN
PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS FM THE SYSTEM REACH THE AREA...THEY WL GET SHUNTED OFF TO
THE SE BY APPROACHING NRN STREAM SHRTWV. THAT WL LIMIT THE AMNT OF
PCPN THAT OCCURS ACRS THE FCST AREA. PCPN TYPE WL ALSO BY AN
ISSUE...ALONG WITH TIMING THE CHANGE FM RAIN TO SNOW. MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ZR OR IP...SO STUCK WITH
JUST A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER IN THE FCST. EXCEPT OVER N-C
WI...THE MOST SIG PCPN SHOULD BE SHIFTG E OF THE AREA BEFORE A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER CAN OCCUR. MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR
FAR N-C WI...BUT WITH FZG PCPN NOW LOOKING LESS LIKELY AND THE
TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED IN A CHANGEOVER SITN...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ONE NOW.

COLDER AIR WL SPREAD ACRS THE AREA TUE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO
THE E. FLOW MAY BE NLY ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT OVER THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SNOWBELT...BUT MODELS DIFFERED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
AIR ACRS THE LAKE. STUCK WITH MID-RANGE POPS AND VERY MODEST SNOW
TOTALS FOR NOW. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV THAT DEFLECTS THE EJECTING
SRN STREAM SYSTEM WL CROSS THE AREA MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WL BE
LIMITED...SO PCPN SHOULD BE JUST FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY THE LAKE-
EFFECT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER WX...THOUGH WITH TEMPS STILL
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WL ACCOMPANY THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM
THROUGH THE RGN.

THE NEXT SRN STREAM SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY TO PASS S OF THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THAT WOULD LEAVE THE FCST AREA BETWEEN THE
MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT FAVORS  A
LOT OF CLDS AND TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIG CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE IMPROVEMENT MVFR/IFR MIX CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...FOG
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR
MUCH OF WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-030-031-035>039-045-073-074.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN






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