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000
FXUS63 KGRB 071142
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
542 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

PCPN TYPE AND COVERAGE OF THE MIXED PCPN ALONG OR NEAR A COLD
FRONT THE PRIMARY ISSUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL OF A
LIGHT ICY MIX THIS MORNING UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST AREA TO FOCUS ON INCLUDE
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WITH AN ICY POTENTIAL.

SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD OFF PCPN
ALONG WITH CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FROPA GRADUALLY SPILLING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH DAY BREAK. AREA
RADARS SHOW WEAK RETURNS WORKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OF AN ICY MIX
OF SNOW MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN NEAR DLH. RADARS TO THE WEST SHOW
A NEARLY WEST TO EAST BAND OF RETURNS EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WITH SOME INCREASE IN RETURNS FROM HAYWARD AND POINTS
WESTWARD. BAND DRIFTING EAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO
WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR A MIX IN THIS REGION AND HANDLE AREAS
SOUTHWARD WITH AN SPS FOR NOW.

INITIALLY WARM AND DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 750 MB WILL START
OUT TO PRODUCE A MIX DURING SATURATION BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE PCPN TYPE TURNS TO MOSTLY SNOW DURING MAX SATURATION
TODAY...BUT MIXING WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. CAA AT H850 AND BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING TO PERHAPS PRODUCE MAINLY SNOW...BUT
SNOW GROWTH REGION MINIMAL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL END OR DIMINISH PCPN OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN IN THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES AND AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO EASTERN
ONTARIO WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PUSH
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST IN THIS FLOW...AND PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST UPPER JET
FORCING...SHORTWAVE ENERGY...AND MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
STATE. A FEW MODELS TRY TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
WI...HOWEVER WITH TIMING AND MOISTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUING...
PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MID-
WEEK THOUGH...WITH MODELS DIVERGING ON HOW TO HANDLE ANY PHASING
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. AND ANOTHER ONE DIGGING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO BRING SOME CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE STATE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PLAY OUT...SO ONLY
INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. MODEL TEMP PROFILES INDICATE A
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX WITH THE PRECIP WHEN/IF IT ARRIVES...BUT WILL
ONLY MENTION A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH TOO MANY QUESTIONS TO START
ADDING ADDITIONAL PRECIP TYPES. NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW RETURNS
FOR MID- WEEK...WITH A FEW FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION. WILL ALLOW MODELS TO COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT
WITH THESE FEATURES BEFORE ADDING ANY SUBSTANTIAL POPS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON SOMEWHAT OF A ROLLER COASTER RIDE LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SURGES OF WAA GET REPLACED BY CAA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS 925/850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER BY TRYING TO PUSH THE WARMER
AIR A LITTLE SOUTH ON MONDAY...AS CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE WARMER AIR
ARRIVE ON MONDAY...AS WAA PATTERN WILL HAVE BEEN IN PLACE AND
TEMPS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850MB INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ON MONDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS
CAA BEGINS...AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. TEMPS LOOK TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE FIRST
REAL PUSH OF WARM AIR OF SPRING...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
LOOK INTO ADDING SOME FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS AS THE SNOW PACK STARTS
TO SLOWLY MELT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE. A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION CONSISTING
OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...THE
FREEZING RAIN TYPE OF THE MIXTURE WILL TURN TO LIGHT RAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL TURN TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

WARMER STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
TRENDING A BIT WARMER FOR SUNDAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED DURING THIS MELT PERIOD SO RUNOFF WILL BE LIMITED TO SNOW
MELT. SINCE OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...ONLY
POTENTIAL FLOODING AFFECTS WILL BE CLOGGED STORM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS
AND SOME PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
TEMPERATURES AFTER MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL...WHICH RETURNS TO A GRADUAL MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK WITH
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM TO ADD TO THE RUNOFF OR SNOW PACK NEXT WEEK
AT THIS TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>012.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH