Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 141927
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
227 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS WHERE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND
SETS UP. THERE WILL BE A LARGE GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THINK MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL SOUTH
OF A STURGEON BAY TO WAUSAU LINE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
OCCUR TO THE NORTH WHILE HIGH END LIKELY/LOW END CATEGORICAL
RAIN CHANCES OCCUR SOUTH OF WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO MANITOWOC LINE.
FIGURE BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.30 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH.

THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WARRANTED SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR RAIN SHOULD END BY SUNSET.

DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND TRENDED SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

PCPN TRENDS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE PRIMARY FCST CONCERN.

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FCST AREA...ALONG WITH COOL AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY
CONDITIONS (OVER MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL/FAR NORTHEAST) ON MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TO NEAR THE
WI/U.P. BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS GRB CWA ON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GEM MODELS.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC
SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. A 35-45 KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING
WAA AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS TO
DEVELOP. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WORK
THEIR WAY ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SUSPECT THAT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
NEED TO BE RAISED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT MAY BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.
AN EAST-WEST BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IT APPEARS THE HEAVIES RAIN BAND
WILL SET UP JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH
AND HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN WILL BE INTO OUR AREA. THINK THE
RAIN/NO MEASURABLE RAIN LINE WILL BE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A WAUSAU
TO STURGEON BAY LINE. THE MORE STEADIER RAINS WILL AFFECT THE
KISW TO KSTE TO KATW TO KGRB AND POINTS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
RAIN...THINK CIGS SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN KY50 TO KOSH TO KMTW AND POINTS
SOUTH. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AND END MONDAY
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF APPLETON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





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