Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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724
FXUS63 KGRB 250334
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1034 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show the
shortwave trough that was responsible for the rainfall earlier today
exiting the region over northern Michigan.  A surface cold front
lags behind this system, however, and is moving across far western
Wisconsin early this afternoon.  This front is largely inactive so
far except for a few showers.  Some instability is building
northeast into northeast WI ahead of the front and the HRRR does
generate additional showers/storms later this afternoon over east-
central WI, so not out of the woods yet in terms of precip chances.
While some spotty drizzle still exists over central and north-
central WI, this nuisant precip should be ending over the next hour
or two.  Precip trends are the main forecast concerns in the short
term.

Tonight...The cold front over the northern Mississippi Valley will
slide across the region late this afternoon and this evening, before
stalling over southeast Wisconsin overnight.  Will see a small
chance of a shower over far northeast WI until this front clears the
area by late in the evening The right rear quad of a jet streak will
also help to focus shower and storm activity over southeast WI, but
think that this activity will be too far south to have an impact on
east-central WI. Though low clouds will exit the area behind the
front, should see ample mid and high clouds arrive from the central
Plains tonight, so not much of a fog threat after the rainfall
today. Cooler low temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Thursday...The front will finally get a push to the southeast during
the morning hours. Cirrus will also be departing during the morning,
so should see more sun through the day.  Steepening low level lapse
rates should yield some cu formation in the afternoon, especially
over north-central WI. Highs ranging from the mid 70s north to low
80s south.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

High pressure drifting over the Great Lakes Region for the
remainder of the week will produce quiet dry conditions to most
areas. Progs continue to produce some light pcpn across upper
Michigan Friday morning with a subtle front in the area and quick
moving short wave sliding across the northern Great Lakes region.
Will keep the small chance mention far north.

Otherwise the primary forecast period is the weekend frontal
system. Medium range progs continue to trend faster with the
arrival time of the WAA region of precipitation...now late friday
night over at last Central Wisconsin. Ending time of the
convection a little more challenging. Weekend progs suggests the
occluded front slides over Saturday evening while the associated
upper trough continues to drift over northern Wisconsin and areas
northward. Convection could end late Saturday afternoon over
parts of central Wisconsin and then linger in the wrap around over
northern Wisconsin. Will have a diminishing period later Saturday
night.

Near zonal flow then sets up for Sunday and overall into the new
work week with weak systems passing over.  Low confidence with
timing of these weaker systems that far out.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A cold front will move exit eastern WI by around TAF issuance
time. A jet streak will pass through the region overnight into
Wednesday morning, and bring some thick cirrus clouds to the
forecast area.

The main aviation concern continues to be whether or not to
include fog in the TAFs late tonight. New MET guidance does not
indicate any fog, and meso-models only show patchy development
in parts of the Fox Valley. With drier air pushing into the
region and thick cirrus overhead, will keep any mention of fog
out of the TAFs, and just alert the incoming shift to the
potential.

Gusty west winds will develop during the late morning and
afternoon on Thursday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch



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