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000
FXUS63 KGRR 020336
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1036 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WILL LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THE COMING WEEK WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE HEADLINES AS THE EVENT WAS GOING DOWN
AS FORECASTED. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 SHOULD END UP WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES. MOST OF THE 4 INCHES AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94 WHERE THE BEST FGEN BANDS WERE COMING THROUGH.
MEANWHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH OF I-96 SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCH OR
TWO.

WE WILL BE MONITORING THE LAKE EFFECT IMPACT TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HEADLINES A BIT LONGER ALONG
THE COAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF MKG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

HAVE ISSUED A SHORT DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER A
QUICK HITTING SNOW EVENT THIS EVENING WHICH WILL IMPACT TRAVEL.
THE ADVISORY STARTS AT 5 PM AND ENDS AT 4 AM WITH THE BULK OF THE
SNOW FALLING THIS EVENING.

HAVE USED A BROAD RANGE OF 1 TO 4 INCHES TO COVER THE BANDED FGEN
NATURE OF THE SNOW WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND CREATE VARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

SNOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AND IS BEING DRIVEN BY MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150
KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LATER THIS
EVENING AS THIS JET STREAK MOVES OFF TO THE EAST A NEW ONE IS
PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS NRN LWR MI. AS THIS SOUTHWARD TRANSITION
TAKES PLACE... THE SNOW OVER SRN LWR MI SHOULD DIMINISH WHILE BETTER
SNOW DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVER NRN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NEW JETLET.

THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A WINDOW THIS EVENING ... ABOUT 4-6
HOURS... TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOW WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY LOW STORM
TOTALS THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL LIKELY IMPACT
SATURDAY EVENING TRAVELERS.

UNDERNEATH THE FGEN PROCESSES... THERE WILL ALSO BE NORTH FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SETTING UP THIS EVENING. THIS COULD CLIP THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OR AT LEAST BIG AND LITTLE SABLE POINTS BEFORE THE WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER MID LAKE MAY COME ONSHORE FOR A TIME. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE THE NAM IS SUGGESTING MESOLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAKE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW IMPACTING THE LAKESHORE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS AFTER DARK AND SENDS IT BACK WEST
OUT OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE LAKE.

COLD NIGHTS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
RIDGING IN CONTROL AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES... WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES TRYING TO GET BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A COUPLE OF
WEAK SYSTEMS LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA. ONE WILL COME THROUGH ON
TUE...AND THE OTHER WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA DURING THE FRI/SAT
TIME FRAME.

THE SYSTEM ON TUE WILL FEATURE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE AREA. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL HAVE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE RIDING
THROUGH IT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER A
COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AIR MASS WITH AN ARCTIC
RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE MORE ENE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE...SO MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

WE WILL SEE A MAINLY DRY PERIOD THEN SET UP FOR THE PERIOD FROM
LATER TUE NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRI. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL SET UP
BEHIND THE TUE WAVE. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BE REINFORCED AS THE AREA
GETS PLACED IN BETWEEN MULTIPLE LOWS/TROUGHS NORTH...SOUTH...AND
WEST OF THE AREA. WE WILL START OUT COOL WED WITH A COOL AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE. WE WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH FRI AS RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH COMMENCES.

THE THREAT OF PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW THEN INCREASES LATER
ON FRI AND INTO EARLY SAT. THE SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA
HELPS TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE SRN LOW
WILL LOCK UP THE MOISTURE COMING FROM THE GULF. TEMP PROFILES ARE A
LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING INITIALLY. HOWEVER EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A COOLER AIR MASS
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

BANDS OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE. BY 12Z...THE BULK OF THE
REMAINING SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO I-94 TAF SITES. THIS EVENING
THOUGH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
THE NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME TO AND END THIS
EVENING...WITH THE I-94 TAF SITES SEEING HEAVIER SNOW PERSISTING
LONGER OR TILL...09Z OR SO.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY WITH CEILINGS HANGING AROUND
ALL DAY. THE SNOW FROM TONIGHT/S SYSTEM SHOULD END IN THE 12Z-14Z
TIME FRAME ACROSS THE I-94 TAF SITES. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PRESS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD HAVE SOME
HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS IN IT. DID NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING LOWER THAN
MVFR AT THIS POINT...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE AND MAY BE
INCLUDED IN LATER TAFS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH REGARDS TO
HYDROLOGY. WE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY THU
THAT RIVERS AND ICE ON THE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STABLE.

WE WILL BE MONITORING THE BRIEF WARM UP THAT IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO WARM INTO
THE 30S...WITH 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE TEMPS ALONG WITH
SOME SUNSHINE COULD THIN THE ICE OUT A LITTLE. THE WARM UP LOOKS
LIMITED ENOUGH IN DURATION AND STRENGTH THAT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT
THE RIVERS A LOT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT THE RIVERS MUCH. WE THEN COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS RATHER STABLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ056>059-
     064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ