Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 270549
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
149 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM.  AREAS NORTH OF A HOLLAND TO ALMA LINE WILL
STAY MAINLY DRY...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
OF A KALAMAZOO TO LANSING LINE.  SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
MAINLY BE DRY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS MAINLY DRY...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN MILD...MAINLY
75 TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A STRONG SURFACE LOW...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH IN TONIGHT TO NE OHIO BY SATURDAY EVENING.  WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL AND STABLE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND RIDE THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF IT.

RAINS CHANCES RAMP UP ACROSS THE SE CWA LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES CLOSER.  WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS FOR INGHAM...CALHOUN AND JACKSON COUNTIES...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96.  THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN CWA
WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SMALL JETLET LATE
TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
PCPN.  JACKSON COUNTY SHOULD BE THE WETTEST...SEEING AROUND A HALF
INCH OF RAIN. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR RAIN NORTH OF A BIV-AMN LINE AS
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN DUE
MUCH DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.

THE SE RAINS WIND DOWN SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW AND UPPER JETLET
STARTS PULLING AWAY.  NOT MUCH BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNS TO THE CWA...PROBABLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS YET
ANOTHER STACKED UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  DECENT INSTABILITY BUILDS
BY AFTERNOON AND ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION...WE
MAY SEE A FEW LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JETLET
MOVES IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD CAUSE AREA-WIDE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND MAINLY MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. NO INDICATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

WITH A DOMINANT H500 RIDGE ACROSS AZ/UT/NV AND A BERMUDA HIGH
HOLDING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...ODDS DON`T LOOK GOOD FOR ANY WARMING
TREND AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. BY MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH BRINGING A H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
100 KNOT JET STREAK MOVING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PICK UP SOME GULF MOISTURE (30-40 KNOT S-N ORIENTED
LLJ) AS IT APPROACHES...HELPING SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

NOT SEEING ANY EVIDENCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
VERY WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS INDICATING LOW BULK SHEAR POTENTIAL.
MORNING CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP CIN PRESENT
AND AFTERNOON SB CAPE IN CHECK. THERE IS A RISK THAT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY WITH THE ECMWF WHICH
INDICATES A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS MOST PRECIP EXITS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. VERY SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRIMARILY A FEW SHOWERS EXISTS WED/THU THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO
REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER.

ANOTHER SYSTEM SIMILAR TO MONDAY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFFORDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH
DOMINANT MID/UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE THESE SYSTEMS OCCASIONALLY...ALONG WITH
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS WITH THE 06Z FCSTS IS THE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS SOME
OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

LIGHT RAIN IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE I-94 TERMINALS...AND IS
ABOUT TO MOVE INTO KLAN. SO FAR THIS HAS BEEN LIGHT RAIN OUT OF A
10K FT CIG. WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME LOWER CIGS WILL MOVE IN DOWN SOUTH TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A BIT
AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES. SOME MVFR IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME.

WE ARE THINKING THAT THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE
LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD KJXN.

WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE N/NE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FURTHER
EAST. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND WINDS WILL DECOUPLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL CAUSE ROUGH LAKE
CONDITIONS MOST OF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING OFF
LATE.  STILL LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SITUATION...BUT THESE ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST A
MODERATE SWIMMING HAZARD FOR THE SUMMER WEEKEND DAY.  CAUTION SHOULD
BE USED.  WINDS LIGHTEN UP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS RUNOFF MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT... MAINLY AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. MORE
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...JK


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