Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 140828
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
328 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

A storm system tracking southeast through central Ontario today
will push a cold front through the area this evening. It will
be significantly warmer than normal today with may areas having
highs above 40 degrees. Expect rain showers later this afternoon
just ahead of the front. Those showers will change to light snow
showers behind the front this evening. Snow accumulations tonight
will limited at best. It will be colder tonight but still warmer
than normal, with lows mostly in the 20s. Light snow showers are
expected Wednesday and Wednesday night but accumulations will be
mostly an inch or less. highs will be near 30s. High pressure
moves through the area Thursday ending the snow showers. Highs
should be near freezing.

A strong warm front moves through the area Friday and that will
bring much warmer than normal temperatures through a good part of
next week. Highs will be in the 50s for the most part and lows
from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Rain showers are possible by early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

We are tracking the potential for showers ahead and with the cold
front late this afternoon and evening then snow showers and
flurries tonight through Wednesday night.

As with yesterday, there is typically deeper mixing ahead of a
cold front, today will be no different. That will allow it to
warm into the lower to mid 40s over the central and southern parts
of our forecast area. Nearly all of our high res models show a
band of showers with the cold front this evening. Given the
strength of the upper wave diving south and that we have the exit
region of a 135 knot jet core to help the cause in thinking most
areas will see the showers this evening.

Wednesday we are in the deep cold air with cyclonicly curved low
level winds and inversion heights on the GFS are near 6000 ft.
The lake is around 2c while 850 temps fall to near -15c so the air
will be cold enough for lake enhanced snow showers. All of our
models area forecasting some QPF and it has been my experience
when they do that it will snow. This is also supported by the CIPS
analogs and NCAR ensembles with have 60 to 70 pct 1 hour pops
over most of our CWA Wednesday. As I wrote yesterday, this will
not be a big snow event but THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS west of
US-131 most of the day Wednesday.

The jet core moves east of the CWA Thursday morning so that will
end the snow showers but the surface warm front does not get
through the area till Friday morning so temperatures should for
the most part be below freezing from midnight tonight through
Friday morning.

My bottom line is warm today with showers this evening, colder
with snow showers Wednesday then partly cloudy and cold Thursday.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

We are looking potentially record breaking warmth for this coming
weekend and early next week, with mainly dry conditions expected
through the period.

The only chance of pcpn we have in the long term portion of the
forecast is right at the beginning on Thu. Lake effect expected mid-
week will be ending, and an elevated warm front will be pushing
through as the cold air will be moving out.

We still expect to see a progressive warm up from Fri right on
through next Mon. We will see a fairly amplified ridge slowly push
toward the area through Sat as troughing occurs out west. There are
indications that a short wave could beat the ridge down briefly and
try to push a cold front into the area. A westerly low level flow
may temper temperatures a little on Sat with flow off of the
cooler lake.

We look to see more warming take place then Sun and Mon with
temperatures pushing close to record levels in the lower 60s. The
upper ridge will be reinforced as additional energy dives in across
the Western U.S.. This warming will be assisted by the low level
flow becoming more srly and not off of the lake. The reinforcement of
the ridge should also keep pcpn from moving in across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1233 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR conditions are expected through early Tuesday morning. A cold
front will drop from north to south through the day. Southwest
winds around 10kts will increase and shift out of the west with
gusts to around 20kts Tuesday afternoon. MVFR cigs will accompany
the front but will likely be brief (couple of hours or so). Widely
scattered rain/snow showers may develop along the front with
little or no impact. Winds then shift out of the northwest behind
the front Tuesday evening with cigs returning to VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

After conferring with near by offices we decided to go with a
gale warning tonight. The models support the idea of gales with
the front as it passed through the area. At any one point, the
gales will last less than 3 hours but since it takes most of the
night to get the front south of the state I have the gale warning
all night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 302 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

River levels continue above normal and minor flooding continues on
the Grand River at Ionia. Little precipitation is expected through
the week and temperatures will be above normal, so river levels
should fall into next weekend.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM



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