Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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378
FXUS63 KGRR 291728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
128 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LINGER TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE AREA OF RAIN (MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THAT WILL PULL EAST OF THE AREA
BY NOON OR SO. THAT WILL END THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR AT
LEAST 36 HOURS.

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL THERE BE A FREEZE NEAR AND NORTH
OF ROUTE 10? IF SKIES CAN CLEAR THIS EVENING THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
NORTHERN AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS DEW POINTS FORECAST
TO FALL TO BELOW FREEZING OVER AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10 BY
THIS EVENING. WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON...SEEMS THERE WOULD BE DECENT
CHANCE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT. WHAT IS AGAINST THAT IS THERE WILL BE A 10 TO 20 KNOTS
OF WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER... THAT SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING THAT LOW. STILL THIS NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED. SEEMS TO ME WITH THE OUTFLOW OFF THE CANADIAN SHIELD INTO
MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM... THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO CLEAR THE SKIES THIS EVENING SO THE FREEZE ISSUE
IS AT LEAST A CONCERN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF ROUGHLY HIGHWAY M20.
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WILL ALLOW
THIS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TEMPS WARM. ALSO
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS SAME AREA PER LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PERSISTENT NE WINDS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MIDDLE 50S.

DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. HOWEVER A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL MOVE NE
INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF
I-96 LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NW BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOMEWHAT COOL ON MONDAY... BUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
CONTINUE TO TREND UP FOR TUESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SNEAKS IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA.
WE SHOULD SEE READINGS PUSHING 70 TUESDAY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THEN THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LWR MI LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPR TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IMPACTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER THE UPR TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SET UP
TO OUR EAST AND MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED. SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN... BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH SFC DEW PTS ONLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE REGION WAS STILL SEEING LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CEILINGS WERE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR. DRIER AIR WILL VERY
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP LIFT ALL CEILINGS TO
VFR BY 19-20Z. EVEN THOUGH MOST AREAS WON/T LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS
INTO TONIGHT...WE STILL EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

WE SHOULD FINALLY LOSE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS BY
SATURDAY MORNING 11-14Z...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING ON
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS AN OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH AS ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. MVFR WILL POSSIBLY
DEVELOP ALONG I-94 INTO THE MID AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME IFR
COULD BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONTINUED ENE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL WAVE ACTION TODAY AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA INTO
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS



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