Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 161132
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
732 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

A little taste of summer is expected today as south winds increase
behind a warm front and dewpoints climb to around 60s. The air will
begin to feel humid and temperatures will climb into the mid 80s.
Next weekend looks to be rather wet as low pressure moves northeast
from the Southern Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

The showers/storms associated with the warm front will be well east
of the cwa by 12z and we should see thinning clouds the rest of the
day. South winds will draw warmer air northward. H8 temps near 15c
will translate to sfc temps in the mid 80s. It`s going to feel humid
too as dewpoints climb to around 60. Highs in the 80s will continue
through Thursday. Chances for rain are pretty low. The upper ridge
over the Great Lakes today will get a kink in the west side as a
short wave moves northeast from the Plains. This wave, however, is
likely to be too far west to create any significant pcpn. So, warm
and humid seems like the way to go for the next few days.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

The weekend looks like it will be wet. Low pressure in the Southern
Plains will again move northeast toward the Upper MS Valley. We`re
like to see showers/storms with the warm front moving north and then
again with the trailing cold front late Saturday into Sunday. Shear
values in the 40-50 kt range suggest the potential for a few
stronger storms with organization possible. Drier air will move back
into the cwa late Sunday and Monday. Temps will be cooler with highs
mainly in the 60s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 732 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

VFR conditions expected to continue through tonight. Scattered
showers early this morning will dissipate and generally fair
weather is expected this afternoon and tonight. South to southwest
winds will increase this morning and gust over 20 knots at times
today before diminishing to around 12 knots tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

South winds will increase today behind a warm front that is moving
north across the region. We issued a small craft advisory through
Wednesday night for the near shore north of Holland. South winds
will increase to 15 to 25 knots and waves will build to 3 to 5 feet
later today.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017

Localized rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning of 0.25" to 0.50"
should easily be absorbed into area rivers and streams without any
real concerns. Isolated higher amounts may bump up small streams but
not above bankfull. Additional widespread rain chances do not look
high until Saturday and Sunday when many areas may pick up close to
1 inch of rain. This will likely cause within bank rises for small
and large rivers. If rain amounts trend higher, then some above
bankfull rises would be possible for certain locations.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ846>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...Hoving
MARINE...04



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