Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 030848
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
348 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A SCATTERED CIRRUS DECK WILL ARRIVE BY THE
AFTERNOON OTHERWISE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. QG FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THROUGH 00Z WITH A NARROW
RIBBON OF BETTER MOISTURE STILL NORTH OF THE IA/MN BORDER THROUGH
THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR NORTH.

A FEW AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BY 8-9 AM.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT LETS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUT ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN IOWA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING PRESENT BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY TO ROUGHLY 700-750MB...HENCE ANY SHOWER WILL BE
HIGHLY ELEVATED AND MORE LIKELY TO JUST SEE VIRGA TONIGHT. SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY
AND FORECAST REMAINS DRY AFTER THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL SATURDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN ON THESE TWO DAYS WERE FOCUSED
ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN THURSDAY AS IT CENTERS DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE AND ALLOWS
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE STATE BUT REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO DEEP TROUGHS
ON EACH COAST OF THE CONUS. AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE STATE WHERE
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO +17C TO +18C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PLUS...MODERATELY STRONG AND DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS DURING AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX THE DEW POINTS TO THE 40S BY THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE. NUDGED UP WINDS A FEW KNOTS BUT THE
MAIN CHANGE WAS INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. WENT
ROUGHLY 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE GOOD
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE SETTING UP. NOT TERRIBLY CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE
WEATHER AS MUCH OF THE STATE SHOULD BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT GREEN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF
BREAKING DOWN AND ALLOWS FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO ENTER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND AND UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE POPS OF
ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT
INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY EVENING AS A TROF AXIS CROSSES THE STATE.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THIS TIME.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL



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