000
FXUS63 KDMX 151125
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY /...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH A GOOD SET UP FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT OF OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE BRINGING A BRIEF LULL...HOWEVER A
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IOWA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WARM
SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THEN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL IOWA
COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION KEEPING THEM IN THE 20 TO 40 RANGE THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN INCREASING RAPIDLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS OUTLINED IN SPC PRODUCTS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COMBINED WITH
ALREADY SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. ASIDE
FROM THE THUNDERSTORM/PRECIPITATION FORECAST THERE IS LITTLE OF
CONCERN FOR TODAY.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE STATE
TEMPORALLY BY LATE TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS POISED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE THAT
LOW PUSHES STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND BRING A COUPLE DRY DAYS. THE JET REMAINS STRONG
AND TRANSIENT. THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS
IS TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE IT REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE NEXT SERIES OF S/WVS EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER THE
UPPER RIDGE KEEPING THE STATE IN THE OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN FROM
THURSDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION...15/12Z
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN AND EVE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BUT THE DETAILS OF
TIMING AND LOCATION ARE UNCLEAR. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AT
KDSM/KOTM IN THE LATE AFTN/EVE AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT THOSE
TERMINALS ACCORDINGLY. BY TONIGHT STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO BR DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY ADVERTISED 6SM BR IN THE TAFS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REASSESSED LATER TODAY AS VSBYS COULD DROP FARTHER. THIS WILL BE
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN FALLING NEARLY EVERYWHERE. WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 70 DEGREES...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CERTAINLY
CONTINUE AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-
CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-FRANKLIN-
GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-
KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...MS JUN 13
AVIATION...LEE
HYDROLOGY...LEE