676
FXUS63 KDMX 271121
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
621 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- `Cooler` today with highs in the 80s in most central Iowa towns

- Chance of weakening storms and showers into northern Iowa late
  this evening or after midnight tonight

- Additional storm chances later this weekend, particularly
  Sunday afternoon and evening, and at times mid to late next
  week. Severe and locally heavy rainfall risk on Sunday is low
  at this time.

- Warm conditions around 90 degrees this weekend, but closer to
  climatological values in the 80s for late June next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

An active afternoon and evening has become more tranquil early this
morning with Nighttime Microphysics RGB from the GOES-East satellite
showing convection over northern Missouri into far southeastern Iowa
with patchy high cloud blow off moving northeastward over the
eastern half or so of Iowa. Low stratus clouds are also filling in
over northern into parts of central Iowa with some hints of fog in
the surface observations and a few webcam checks. With weak cold air
advection behind the surface front as shown in the 925mb chart,
highs today will be kept in the 80s with upper 70s over northeastern
Iowa where the stratus clouds will linger and depart later in the
day.

As we head into tonight, attention will be on western Nebraska and
South Dakota as a weak shortwave perturbation kicks off convection
out that direction. The 0z convective allowing models (CAMs) are
hinting that this will near Missouri River and possibly move into
western Iowa as some weakening convection later this evening or
overnight. The NamNest and ARW cores show this arriving late in the
evening into western Iowa while the HRRR and RRFS brings this in
later and over northern Iowa. Soundings point to these being
elevated storms as they arrive, but with downdraft CAPE values over
1000 J/kg per GFS and HRRR forecast soundings, there could be a few
wind gusts with guidance currently pointing to these being sub-
severe. Most CAMs have whatever convection dissipating by sunrise
Saturday and forecast is dry by that timeframe into the day
Saturday, but the RRFS does fester some convection over northern
Iowa. It will become breezy as the cold front, which will have
stalled just south of the state, will return as a warm front on
Saturday. Winds from the south will average 10 to 20 mph with gusts
of 15 to 25 mph common and highs will be back within a few degrees
of 90 in most places.

As the sun sets Saturday evening, we`ll be keeping an eye to the
north and northwest as convection develops along a cold front.
Instability will not be in short supply and mid-level lapse rates
will be steep, but any appreciable deep layer shear for storm
organization Saturday night/early Sunday is closer to the boundary.
Thus, activity is expected to stay mostly if not fully in Minnesota
that develops along the front there with this idea supported by CAMs
such as the 0z RRFS and 6z HRRR. The convection that develops over
South Dakota may push into northern Iowa well after midnight if not
closer to after daylight Sunday. Thus, may need to further trim and
fine tune initial National Blend of Models guidance that seems
aggressive on rain and storm chances over northern Iowa Saturday
evening and night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Focus is on the developing activity this afternoon into evening.
Midday surface analysis has the warm front hanging out over northern
Iowa near the IA/MN border, continuing to become better defined with
time. The surface low is ejecting out of eastern SD/NW IA/SE MN and
will track across far northern IA/southern MN with time through the
afternoon and evening hours. Adjacent to the low is a cool front
extending southward through eastern NE and beyond. These features
will all be drivers of our showers and storms through the afternoon
and evening with storms having already been bubbling into midday
over portions of west central Iowa with some showers ongoing in
portions of northern Iowa and mostly clear skies to the east of the
bubbling storms/showers. The warm sector south and east of the two
boundaries is directly over the state where temperatures have warmed
into the 80s where precipitation is not ongoing, with very moist and
humid conditions as dew points are near-widespread in the 70s. This
has translated to instability values (MLCAPE) of 1000-2500 J/kg over
the area as of midday with soundings showing robust ECAPE values as
we get into later this afternoon as well. Wind shear over much of
central to southern Iowa remains weaker, but over north central into
far northern Iowa bulk wind shear is much better, 30-40 knots. The
farther north is also where LCLs are lowest and is generally where
the better tornado environment exists, but is also highly
conditional with rain ongoing over that same environment as of
midday. The triple point between the fronts and surface low will
remain a foci for any potential more discrete storms where the
tornado potential would be highest with initial storm
development given the low level CAPE and stretching potential in
that vicinity. The caveat is how this environment recovers
given the activity ongoing around midday. Further south along
the front, generally expecting more linear convection with more
broken storms the farthest south you go given the very weak
shear. For portions of central into northern Iowa, storms along
the line may pose a damaging wind threat, though will monitor
for any potential spin ups as well the further north you go
where the more favorable (though conditional) tornado
environment exists. Not really expecting much in the way of hail
given the overall environment, but some small, to maybe
isolated marginally severe hail could be possible if a more
robust storm is able to develop. Overall, storms are expected to
develop in western Iowa and track east to southeast with time
through the area, but CAMs are not necessarily capturing current
trends well so confidence is decreased in how convection plays
out through the afternoon. Besides the conditional tornado
threat north, and wind threat with the line, will also continue
to monitor our hydro situation as the environment remains
favorable for efficient rainfall, as it has the last several
days. Continue to expect 1-3" with localized higher 3"+ amounts,
though again midday activity may affect how the rest of the
afternoon/evening progress.

By late tonight, storms will have cleared the area with a surface
ridge moving over on Friday. This will bring a much-needed quiet day
in terms of weather back to the area. Waves moving through our
otherwise upper zonal flow will bring precipitation chances back to
the forecast at times later in the weekend (Saturday night into
Sunday) and again at times next week. Will continue to monitor the
threat for any severe weather with uncertainty remaining on where
storms may track into Sunday. Otherwise, temperatures remain warm in
the 80s to 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

IFR and MVFR ceilings are common at terminals north of I-80
this morning as low stratus settles into the state. However,
this stratus will begin to move to the northeast and to scatter
later this morning with VFR conditions returning by early
afternoon at all official forecast sites. The timing of this was
slightly delayed in this issuance to account for the latest
trends in guidance. VFR conditions will prevail as winds from
the northwest become light and variable late this afternoon and
evening with winds becoming from the southeast by the end of the
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

One final round of heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding is
expected today before at least a short break in precipitation on
Friday. However, as water is routed through the basins and river
systems, river flooding concerns will persist well into next week.

A broken line of storms is expected to develop along a cold front
this afternoon and move from west to east across much of the CWA
into this evening. As in past days, robust moisture content, high
freezing levels and ample instability will again lead to efficient
rain rates. However, this line of storms should be progressive,
moving eastward around 30 mph. Many of the global models and CAMs
are indicating widespread 1-2" rainfall amounts, but the progressive
nature of the storms should prevent rainfall amounts from getting
out of hand. The 26/12Z HREF 24hr PMM valid from 12z Thu to 12z
Fri shows this nicely, with only sporadic amounts over 3"
indicated.

Flash flooding is a concern with the rainfall this afternoon into
tonight however for now we have opted to not issue a flood watch for
flash flooding because we think the current flash flood guidance
(FFG) across our CWA is a little too low. Historically the FFG
starts having a tougher time capturing reality in our region during
this time of year, due to ag crops taking off in their growth. That
issue is admittedly tempered with the recent heavy rainfall, however
we still think the FFG is running a little low. Although some
isolated flash flooding is possible, at this time we do not believe
the flash flooding will become scattered (i.e., rise to the level of
needing a watch). If the storms this afternoon and evening do more
training than we presently expect, though, then the flash flood risk
would increase.

In terms of river flooding, we have returned to 24 hrs of QPF in our
river forecasts. The river forecast updates today do not have any
significant changes aside from some ups and downs within the same
category. The main reasons for the forecast changes are mainly QPE
vs QPF changes from last night was well as shifting of the QPF
locations for today. It should also be noted that for many locations
where action stage is forecast, those forecast crests are near flood
stage.

Due to increased confidence in the river flooding occurring, we have
issued river flood watches for those locations where river flooding
is forecast. The larger streams of most concern presently include
the Cedar, Winnebago and Raccoon Rivers. For some locations, the
elevated stages and river flooding is expected to continue well into
next week.

Additional rainfall is in the forecast for the Sunday timeframe.
This rainfall may be locally heavy and may impact area rivers.
Depending on the location of the rainfall, this rainfall has the
potential to result in quicker rises, slightly higher crests or
slower falls after the crests.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ansorge
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...Ansorge
HYDROLOGY...05/Zogg