000
FXUS63 KDMX 140853
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
353 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA.  MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY STILL BE
ONGOING NEAR GRINNELL AND OSKALOOSA AREAS.  HOWEVER...BY MID
MORNING...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ESSENTIALLY OVER
EXCEPT NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER WHERE RAIN/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE PLAINS.  ELSEWHERE...QUITE A
CHANGE FROM THE NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROF PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 40. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE INFLUENCE FROM
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE FELT.  FARTHER NORTHWEST...DEEPENING DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW CLEARING TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS INTO THE STATE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED AS COOL AND ACTIVE. UPPER
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES KEEPING THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN A NORTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY A WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 ON THOSE DAYS WHERE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BUT IN GENERAL HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MORE MILD DAY. A
SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL DRIVE THE LOW INTO
WISCONSIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
IOWA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND COLDER AIR ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
SO ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

THEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS AND DEEPEN AS
IT SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION
AND WHILE IT IS NOT GREAT...THAT SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BUT PUT
IOWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN SO COOL TEMPS WILL REMAIN INTO
THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DROP ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOWN THE FLOW LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AT THIS
TIME DO NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POP
FOR THIS PERIOD. AS THAT SHORTWAVE SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT MORE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TEMPS WILL
FINALLY BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70. THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN WITH UP FOR
AWHILE AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...14/06Z
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CONDITIONS VARY FROM MVFR/IFR SE TO IFR/LIFR NW WITH MOST
DEGRADATION IN FROM SW TO N CENTRAL IA AT 06Z. EXPECT SIMILAR
TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS RAIN SNOW LINE GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTH
AND EAST. PRECIP SHOULD END 08Z-11Z FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON. NLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OFTEN WELL INTO THE 30S /KTS/ BEFORE
DIMINISHING ONLY SLIGHTLY MON...AND THEN DECOUPLING TOWARD SUNSET.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL