000
FXUS63 KDMX 290812
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TEMPS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH NE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MO VALLEY JET SEGMENT AND ALSO
AIDED BY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER AND WEAKEN LATER
TODAY. OUR POTENTIAL WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DRIVEN BY
SHALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR
CONVERGENCE. AREAL COVERAGE WAS VERY MINIMAL MONDAY HOWEVER...WELL
UNDER 10 PERCENT...SO DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ADEQUATELY CONVEY WHAT WILL MATERIALIZE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT MENTION AND
FORECAST DRY OUTSIDE OF FAR NE CORNER CLOSER TO BETTER MLCAPES.
0-1KM TEMPS NUDGE UP JUST SLIGHTLY VS YESTERDAY SO HAVE ADDED A
FEW DEGREES TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE GYRE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON BAY HAS CARVED OUT A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF OF THE U.S. AND IOWA
LIES BENEATH THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASSES. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SMALL SHOWERS
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND
REPLACED BY A MORE DISORGANIZED FLOW OVER IOWA...PERHAPS IN A
ROUGHLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER AND SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...EVEN THEN NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TAFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE TOO ISOLD AND LIGHT TO
MENTION IN TAFS OR GRIDDED FORECASTS. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
ONCE AGAIN WE WILL DEVELOP A BKN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER
WAVE PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB