Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 190857
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
357 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Main forecast concern was focused on timing and location
of the MCS, located over Nebraska, into the forecast area later this
morning. The overall model trends have been to slow the progression
and thus the arrival into the CWA until around 12-14z this morning
over the west to northwest. However, a couple outliers in the hires
models today as the operational HRRR and RAP show a line of storms
develop over western Iowa this morning ahead of the main MCS. The
ARW/NMM WRF, NSSL 4.0 WRF, and experimental HRRR progress the
current MCS across the northern portions of the CWA today. This is
more in line with the NAM12, GFS and ECMWF and leaned toward the
latter blend. As a result, cut back on pops for much of the forecast
area until after 12z and went completely dry across the south today.

As far as severe weather potential today, it remains a low coverage
and low probability as the highest CAPE depicted by any model is
around 2500 J/kg via the NAM12. DCAPE is minimal and shear is weak
throughout the column today, so any severe weather (in the form of
large hail) looks to be short-lived and likely just elevated as LCL
heights range around 2000-2500 feet. Really the main focus is heavy
rain as warm layer cloud depths top 14,500 feet over northern Iowa,
PWATs as high as 2.0 inches, and decent moisture transport later
this morning into the afternoon. Certainly a potential for some
efficient rain producers, but with the low confidence in the
widespread coverage of the convection today, held off on any flash
flood headlines18 at this time.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Another shortwave to top the ridge tonight, with strong theta-e
advection across central/northern Iowa this evening into the
overnight hours. This present additional chances for convection
especially as the LLJ increases late tonight and becomes oriented
into NC/NE IA and MN. High freezing levels and PWATs around 2
inches with possibility of backbuilding area of convection with
the area of theta-e advection slowly moving off to the northeast,
suggests the potential for heavy rainfall. This combined with the
fact that northern Iowa has already had some heavier rainfall over
the past 72 hours, yields the potential for flash flooding and
thus have issued a watch for tonight across the far northeastern
counties.

Focus then shifts from precip chances to the heat into Wednesday
through the end of the week. Thermal ridge to build in aloft
Wednesday into Friday as upper ridging amplifies some. H85
temperatures climb into the mid 20s C Wednesday, and upper 20s to
around 30C by Thursday. This should yield temperatures into 90s
Wednesday and mid to upper 90s into Thursday. Dewpoints also
remain in the 70s across the CWA and given the heavier rains of
the past few days, will allow them to possibly climb higher. This
will push heat index values to well above 100 Wednesday and around
110 across much of the state into Thursday. Slightly cooler
conditions for Friday, but the heat index values will still remain
around 105 to 110. Therefore with the heat being prolonged and
combine the daytime temps with the overnight temps in the mid to
upper 70s, will continue the excessive heat watch.

Cooler airmass to move into the state this weekend as the upper
ridge breaks down and an upper level trough pushes through the
northern US/SRN prairie provinces of Canada. This sends a cold
front southward through the state Saturday into Saturday night
with chances of storms and a return to more seasonal temperatures
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night/
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Main concern is timing of showers/storms moving into TAF sites
late overnight and through the morning hours. Guidance continues
to slow down progression, unlikely before 12z at any sites now.
Currently, low VFR cigs already building into northwest Iowa,
leaving concern for MVFR conditions prior to showers/storms,
though mentions have been left out as indications are to stay just
inside of VFR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Heavy rainfall over the past few days across NC IA and the chance
for heavy rainfall again tonight will lead to the potential for
flash flooding across portions of north central Iowa, therefore
have issued a flash flood watch for tonight through early
Wednesday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher
amounts will be possible in the watch area.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday
evening for Adair-Adams-Appanoose-Audubon-Black Hawk-Boone-
Bremer-Butler-Calhoun-Carroll-Cass-Cerro Gordo-Clarke-Crawford-
Dallas-Davis-Decatur-Emmet-Franklin-Greene-Grundy-Guthrie-
Hamilton-Hancock-Hardin-Humboldt-Jasper-Kossuth-Lucas-Madison-
Mahaska-Marion-Marshall-Monroe-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Polk-
Poweshiek-Ringgold-Sac-Story-Tama-Taylor-Union-Wapello-Warren-
Wayne-Webster-Winnebago-Worth-Wright.

Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning
for Cerro Gordo-Hancock-Winnebago-Worth.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Podrazik
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Curtis
HYDROLOGY...Beerends


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