Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 250849

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
349 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Surface low pressure is currently centered over northeast Oklahoma
though its sphere of influence encompasses much of the Central and
Southern Plains. This system and its associated upper low
pressure will lift northeast through Missouri today and towards
west central Illinois by tonight. A deformation band of light rain
should develop over southern Iowa early this morning as modest
theta-e advection lifts north into the state. This band of
precipitation will move north into central Iowa by mid to late
morning then gradually weaken/diminish though the afternoon as
drier mid-level air arrives. Precipitation chances will continue
tonight but with the dry air aloft it will be mainly in the form
of drizzle.

Temperatures will remain cool today with steep inversion in place
and nearly saturated profiles allowing for very little warming.
High temperatures will not stray far from temperatures this
morning. The wind will be brisk from the northeast today then
diminish overnight.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The main focus of the extended was pops mid to late week and
temperatures. The GFS and ECMWF/Canadian have large discrepancies
beginning Wednesday with the GFS the driest model next week. The
ECMWF/Canadian depict another upper level low to slowly migrate
across the region beginning Wednesday night. Thus, if the
ECMWF/Canadian solutions hold true, then a colder and wetter
pattern is in store for the state late next week. Leaned slightly
toward these two model runs as the ECMWF has been slightly more
consistent with its current solution.

Sunday into Tuesday...Lingering light rain is possible across the
east Sunday as the upper low currently impacting the forecast area
finally exits the region. A second shortwave looks to travel
across Kansas into Missouri and may skirt far enough north to
bring some light precipitation across southern Iowa early Monday.
Otherwise, surface high pressure builds into the region and
dominates the weather pattern into at least Tuesday.

Wednesday into Friday...The GFS keeps the aforementioned surface
high pressure over the region through Wednesday, lingering the
dry conditions across the state until Thursday. However, the
ECMWF/Canadian bring an upper level low pressure system out of the
southern Rockies and becomes cutoff by the end of the work week.
Thus, concerned the forecast is too warm for high temperatures
Thursday and Friday and trended downward slightly.


.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night/
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Little change from previous forecast. Cigs remain IFR/MVFR
with either -ra or -dz for the period. Across the north cigs will
lower but precipitation chances will lessen with time through the
period. Winds remain strong from the north northeast at 15kts with
gusts to 20 to 25 kts through at least 20z. Little improvement
from IFR/MVFR is expected through the period. /rev





SHORT TERM...Donavon
LONG TERM...Podrazik
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