Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 110733
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
232 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Chilly Start to the Day with Some Patchy Frost Around Early...

Current...Much of east central FL will be in the 30s for
temperatures around sunrise. Near freezing temperatures will be
possible over far northern Lake and northwest Volusia counties.
While the airmass is very dry, enough moisture near the surface may
allow for some patchy frost to develop. Deep WNW/NW flow resides
across the area. Precipitable water values are around 0.25 inches as
conditions remain dry. Weak high pressure ridging lies across
central FL with skies MClear and light surface winds.

Today-Tonight...Weak high pressure ridging at the surface will
continue across the area through this period. The flow remains zonal
aloft as an east-west elongated piece of energy continues to weaken
over the central FL peninsula. PWAT values generally no more than
0.30 inches during the day but will start to recover this evening
and overnight in upwards of 0.50 inches near/north of I-4 by
daybreak Tue morning. Conditions will still remain dry with no
precip in the forecast. Skies MSunny during the day. Surface wind
direction mainly NW, but backing to more WNW/W by late in the
afternoon with speeds slowly increasing to 5-10 mph. Winds will fall
to light again this evening below 5 mph areawide.

After a very chilly start to the day, highs will recover into the L-
M60s areawide. Overnight lows warmer, in general, than the previous
two nights, but the GFS is showing very dry air across our southern
coverage warning area, which may allow for coldest temperatures
across ECFL to reside here into early Tue morning. Expecting L-M40s
for lows, except interior south of Orlando where we may realize some
U30s to around 40 degrees for temps. Skies MClear tonight.

Tuesday...A longwave trough extending from the Great Lakes to the
Southeast states on Tue will allow a reinforcing dry cold front to
reach east central Florida by Tue evening. Ahead of the front
westerly low level flow will become breezy by afternoon with
afternoon high temps warming into the lower 70s.

Tue Night...Low level flow will become northwest to around 10 mph
overnight with a dry dry NW flow through a deep layer behind the
cold front. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 40s for much
of east central Florida but some colder readings in the upper 30s
will affect portions of Volusia and Lake county.

Wed...Dry, sunny and cool weather is expected on Wednesday with low
level northwest flow as high pressure slides east along the northern
Gulf coast. Highs are expected in the upper 50s north to lower to
mid 60s srn sections.

Thu-Mon...Forecast challenge for the extended range will be exact
timing of next trough that will bring a chance of showers for late
week. Both the GFS and ECMWF keep Thursday dry as high pressure
moves eastward into the Atlantic and low level westerly flow
develops by afternoon. The ECMWF continues its trend of a deeper and
slightly slower shortwave trough with the bulk of the shower
activity moving through Friday night while the GFS has the timing
about 12 hours faster. For now will keep shower chances in both the
Friday/Fri Night periods before the shortwave moves east of the
state into Saturday afternoon. High pressure should be near the
peninsula in the wake of the aforementioned trough by late Saturday
into Sunday.  Generally mild temps are expected behind the next
system with rising 500 mb heights across central Florida. This will
allow for high temps in the 70s for Sunday and Monday and lows
mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...Continued VFR/SKC.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Weak high pressure ridging will reside over the
coastal waters for this period. Confident we can drop any remaining
cautionary statements for the Gulf Stream with next coastal waters
forecast issuance. Seas continue to subside with 2-3 ft seas very
near shore and generally 3-4 ft seas over the Gulf Stream, outside
of a few 5 ft wave sets early this morning south of the Cape. NW
winds 10-14 kts over the open Atlc early on will fall to AOB 10 kts
areawide this afternoon as winds become more WNW/WRLY. Wind speeds
will pick up a bit again this evening to 10-15 kts over the open
Altc, perhaps up around 15 kts well offshore the Volusia coast late.

Tuesday...Westerly winds will increase to around 15-20 knots near
shore and up to 20 knots offshore into late afternoon ahead of the
next dry cold front. Seas will build to 4-6 ft offshore.

Tue Night...NW winds will increase to near 20 knots near shore and
up to 20-25 knots offshore. Small craft advisories will likely be
required with seas building up to 7-9 ft well offshore late.

Wed...NW winds to 15-20 knots in the morning will decrease into the
afternoon but seas will remain at hazardous levels in the gulf
stream into the afternoon hours.

Thu-Fri...Westerly winds are expected to decrease Thu to around 10
knots allowing seas to subside. An increase in southwest winds is
expected Friday to 15-20 knots ahead of the next front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Outside of unseasonably cold temperatures early this
morning, we may also realize some patchy frost early on. Weak
pressure gradient over the area today with a continued very dry
airmass in place. Weak high pressure ridging resides over the area
with 20FT winds generally NW or WNW 3-7 mph promoting poor to fair
dispersion at best. Lowest afternoon RH values will fall into the M-
U20s/L30s interior and around 35pct closer towards the east coast.

Tuesday...Westerly low level winds will increase into the afternoon
and become breezy in some locations. High temps will warm into the
lower 70s in the afternoon allowing afternoon Min RHs to drop to
between 35 to 40 percent.

Wednesday...Drier and cooler weather is expected with Min RHs
dropping to around 30 percent across the nrn interior behind the
next dry front. NW winds expected up to 10-15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  43  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  63  43  73  43 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  64  42  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  64  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  63  45  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  62  43  73  42 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  62  45  73  44 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  64  39  73  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Sedlock
MID-LONG TERM....Volkmer


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