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000
FXUS62 KMLB 190756
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
356 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...Dry and Warm Weather Continues with Near Record Highs This
Weekend...

Today-Tonight...Central Florida will reside between two high
pressure centers, with one over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and the
other over the west Atlantic, with ridge axis just south of the
area. This will produce weak surface winds across the area today,
around 5 mph initially. However, as temperatures rise and become
warmer than normal by 5-8 degrees this afternoon, the east coast
sea breeze will develop and push inland, with E/SE winds
increasing to around 10-15 mph along the coast. The inland moving
sea breeze will lead to highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s
along the coast, and low 90s over the interior. These values are
forecast to remain just below high temperature records by 2-3
degrees across inland sites and by 4-6 degrees across coastal
sites today (see Climate section below). Dry conditions will
continue today into tonight, with skies mostly clearly to partly
cloudy. Temperatures will gradually fall into the 70s this
evening, with overnight lows in the 60s.

Saturday-Sunday...Troughing aloft across the midwest and
northeastern US will lead to quasi-zonal flow aloft locally, with
the associated area of high pressure at the surface remaining over
the western Atlantic through the weekend. As a result, dry
conditions are forecast to continue this weekend across east central
Florida, with PoPs remaining below 15 percent. Light west-southwest
winds will back to out of the south-southeast Saturday afternoon as
the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, with winds
increasing to 10 mph. By Sunday, winds aloft will become more
westerly, which will cause the east coast sea breeze to struggle
moving inland, likely remaining pinned at the coast. Moisture is
forecast to increase across the peninsula on Sunday ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary. Depending on the strength of the sea
breeze on Sunday, some light, isolated showers may be possible
Sunday afternoon. Confidence in this remains low, however, so have
kept PoPs below mentionable levels.

In addition to the dry weather, temperatures are forecast to be
above normal this weekend. In some locations across east central
Florida, afternoon temperatures may even climb to 10 degrees above
normal! Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to mid 90s both
Saturday and Sunday, with low humidities keeping heat indices
relatively close to their forecasted actual temperatures. Overnight
temperatures will remain in the 60s.

Monday-Thursday...A weak cold front will approach the Florida
peninsula on Monday, leading to increasing rain chances across east
central Florida. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out, though
confidence in this continues to not remain high due to limited
moisture and modest instability. The front will move southward
across the peninsula during the day before settling across southern
Florida. Global guidance then indicates the development of an area
of high pressure across the southeastern US behind the front,
extending southward towards the area, though the extent southward
varies between the Euro and the GFS. The GFS indicates lingering
moisture remaining in place across southern portions of forecast
area through the middle of next week, with the weakening frontal
boundary lifting slightly northward. The Euro, on the other hand,
keeps conditions dry behind the frontal boundary across east central
Florida. Continued to go with the NBM as a middle ground between the
two models, with isolated showers remaining in the forecast for now.
Winds will become northerly on Monday behind the front before
veering onshore Tuesday through Thursday.

Afternoon highs will cool slightly on Monday behind the front,
primarily north of the Orlando metro and the Cape to the upper 70s
to low 80s. Areas southward will remain in the mid 80s to low 90s.
Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid
80s across our coastal counties and in the mid to upper 80s across
our interior counties. By Thursday, temperatures will warm slightly
into the low 80s to upper 80s across east central Florida. Overnight
lows generally in the 60s, with a few areas across northern Volusia
and Lake counties falling into the upper 50s behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions forecast to largely prevail today into tonight. Some
patchy fog may be possible, mainly near to northwest of the I-4
corridor late tonight into early Saturday, producing tempo IFR/MVFR
visibilities. However, overall confidence in fog development remains
low at this time. Winds will be light and somewhat variable around 5
mph through this morning. Winds then become E/SE along the coast
and increase to around 9-12 knots this afternoon as the east
coast sea breeze forms and moves inland. Winds then decrease,
becoming light and variable once again tonight from late evening
onward.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic
will reside just south of the waters, with relatively light winds
out of the S/SW this morning, around 5-10 knots, becoming S/SE up to
10-15 knots this afternoon and evening with the inland moving east
coast sea breeze. Winds then diminish as they veer to the W/SW late
tonight back down to 5-10 knots. Seas will range from 2-3 feet,
building up to 4 feet offshore tonight.

Saturday-Tuesday...An area of high pressure will remain in place
across the western Atlantic through this weekend, keeping conditions
dry across the local waters. Winds out of the west will become
southerly each afternoon this weekend as the east coast sea breeze
develops. Winds on Sunday will increase to 10 to 20 knots across the
local waters as the pressure gradient begins to tighten as a result
of an approaching weak frontal boundary. The weak cold front is
forecast to cross the local waters on Monday, with rain chances
increasing as a result. Isolated storms will be possible with this
activity. Winds will veer to out of the north-northwest behind the
boundary at 10 to 15 knots. Conditions will dry out on Tuesday as
the front moves south of the area, with winds becoming northeasterly
at 10 to 15 knots. Seas across the local Atlantic waters will
generally remain between 2 to 4 feet through this weekend, with
increases to 3 to 5 feet across the waters possible on Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Today...Dry airmass and warmer than normal temperatures will again
lead to lower RH values around the mid to upper 30s across the
interior this afternoon. However, winds will be rather light and
somewhat variable inland. Min RH values will remain above critical
values in the 40 to 50 percent range along the coast, as the east
coast sea breeze will develop and push inland, increasing winds
to 10-15 mph.

Saturday-Wednesday...A broad area of high pressure will remain in
place across the Florida peninsula through the weekend, with dry
conditions continuing across east central Florida as a result.
Minimum RH values are forecast to remain in the 30 to 45 percent
range west of I-95 across the interior through Sunday, with winds
continuing to be light out of the west-southwest, becoming
variable at times, until the east coast sea breeze develops and
moves inland, leading to winds turning to out of the south-
southeast around 10 mph. The next best chance for rain will be on
Monday as a weak cold front moves across the area, with increasing
rain chances forecast. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out with
this activity. Minimum RH values will rise above critical values
to 40 to 60 percent as a result of increasing moisture across east
central Florida, with values forecast to once again drop into the
middle of next week behind the weak front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Highs will be above to well above normal over the next few days,
reaching the mid 80s to around 90 degrees along the coast and in
the low 90s over the interior (mid 90s possible inland on
Saturday). These values will be near daily record highs over the
next few days.

Record Highs for April 19-21 and Last Year Set:

            APR 19TH  APR 20TH  APR 21ST
Daytona     92 1968   95 1968   89 2002
Leesburg    92 2020   93 2006   93 1968
Sanford     94 2020   94 2006   93 2006
Orlando     94 1922   96 1908   96 1935
Melbourne   93 2015   91 1944   92 1944
Vero Beach  93 1969   90 1968   91 1970
Ft. Pierce  92 1988   92 1968   90 2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  64  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  91  67  92  67 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  86  66  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  87  64  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  90  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  91  65  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  91  67  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  87  63  90  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Weitlich
LONG TERM...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Weitlich