Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 092009
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
309 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...
...Unseasonably Cold Tonight and Sunday Night...
...Wind Chill Advisory Over Most of Area Late Tonight...

Tonight and Sunday...Lower clouds in the process of breaking
should clear out of the area by around nightfall with overnight
advection of cold air into the region pushing temperatures through
the 40s and into the 30s early Sunday morning. Colder temperatures
combined with wind speeds in the 7 to 10 mph range will necessitate
a wind chill advisory for most of the area, aside from the Treasure
Coast locations late tonight. Expect a sunny cool start to Sunday
with decreasing NW winds and continued advection of cooler and
dry air keeping unseasonably cool temps in place. Highs will make
it only into the U50s-L60s with winds of 7 to 11 mph.

Monday-Wednesday...Large scale mid-upper level troughing will remain
in place over the central-eastern CONUS through mid week. A well
defined embedded short wave will rotate through the larger trough
and across the eastern CONUS/Florida Tuesday afternoon-evening,
which will drive a reinforcing (dry) cool front through central
Florida during the day. Ahead of the front, the cold high pressure
ridge over the peninsula will weaken and shift south of the area,
with increasing pre-frontal westerly flow moderating temps ahead of
the wind shift. Moderate northwest flow with a renewed surge of
cold/dry air advection is on tap for Tuesday night/early Wednesday,
followed by high pressure cresting over the top of Florida Wednesday
night.

With the ridge axis closer to the area early Monday morning,
boundary layer winds will drop off and patchy frost is expected
with lows again in the M-U30s areawide save for Martin County.
High temperatures should modify some to L-M60s Mon with mins not as
cold (L-M40s) but still chilly. Temperatures rebound even more on
Tuesday with L70s areawide, but then cooler again behind the front
with L-M40s fir mins and 60s for highs. Some potential for patchy
frost again west of I-95 as mins fall into the U30s-L40s.

Thursday-Saturday...Both the ECM and GFS shows the base of the late
week short wave trough deforming and shearing out some as it pushes
into the SE CONUS Friday. Some disagreement exists with respect to
the southward frontal push, with the GFS faster and farther south,
thus confidence is fairly low in any particular solution this far
out. Moisture return ahead of the front looks limited, however have
added a small POP to get in line with adjacent offices. Temps will
rebound into the U60s-L70s for highs with mins in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Lower clouds will be present with MVFR cigs nr FL018-025 only
through around 10/00z over the Space/Treasure Coasts then VFR
conds with no obstructions to sky or vsby areawide for the next 24
to 30H with high pressure building over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight and Sunday...Ongoing advisory conditions with brisk post-
frontal gradient winds will continue into Sunday. Seas will become
fully arisen overnight tonight in the 6 to 7 foot range nears shore
and 7 to 9 ft offshore. Reduction in winds Sunday should allow
for the advisory to be trimmed to only the outer waters by around
midday and no more than caution headlines by Sunday evening.

Monday-Thursday...Axis of high pressure ridge will slide across
central Florida Monday before weakening and shifting south Tuesday,
with increasing westerly winds ahead of the next cold front. High
pressure will rebuild over the waters Wednesday-early Thursday,
with westerly flow increasing again into Thursday night.

Seas 3-4FT Monday-early Tuesday, then building briefly to 6-8FT well
offshore Tuesday night-early Wednesday due to the northerly post-
frontal wind surge. Winds and seas will steadily subside to 4-6FT
late Wednesday and 2-3FT by Thursday as the high builds overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool high pressure will keep dry conditions in place into midweek.
RH values will fall into the 30s on Sunday and into the 20s inland
on Monday. Relatively high 10hr fuel moisture should prohibit
overall critical conditions from occurring. Increasing westerly
flow Tuesday ahead of the next reinforcing frontal passage will
moderate minimum RH values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  36  57  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  37  59  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  37  61  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  39  62  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  36  59  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  36  59  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  39  59  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  40  61  39  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for Coastal
     Volusia County-Indian River-Inland Volusia County-Northern
     Brevard County-Northern Lake County-Okeechobee-Orange-
     Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-Southern Lake
     County.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Cristaldi



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