Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 180735
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
235 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Above Normal Temperatures This Week...

Currently...Some fog and stratus has moved in from the west across
portions of Lake county with a quarter mile visibility in fog at
Leesburg at 2 am. Have raised a Dense Fog Advisory for this area
through 9 am. Latest HRRR runs indicate low visibility fog will
expand eastward across Orange/Seminole and Volusia county through
sunrise. Will monitor trends and may need to expand Dense Fog
Advisory into these areas during the early morning hours.

Today...A strong mid level ridge will continue across south FL and
extend eastward well offshore into the Atlantic. The low level ridge
across central FL will be reinforced by another high pressure area
moving off the mid Atlc by this evening. Morning fog and stratus
mainly north of a Kissimmee to Mims line will dissipate into mid to
late morning. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny this afternoon
with PWATs around an inch or less. Highs will reach the upper 70s
along the Volusia coast and around 80/lower 80s from Brevard south
along the coast. Should see high temps from 83 to 85 across the
interior. At the beaches an east swell will produce a moderate risk
for rip currents.

Tonight...High pressure pushing east from the mid Atlantic states
will allow a slight increase in the low level onshore winds with 925
mb winds increasing to 15-20 knots from the ESE/SE. This should
favor late night fog chances across interior and nrn sections. The
airmass will remain dry from above 850 mbs with mostly clear skies
except for late night patchy stratus and fog mainly for the
interior. Lows in the lower to mid 60s.

Mon-Mon Night...Patchy fog may again greet the new day across ECFL,
especially the interior, but will burn-off/dissipate thru mid
morning. Expansive surface high pressure ridging over the western
Atlc with ridge axis north of ECFL will provide light to moderate
onshore (ESE) flow across the area. Wind speeds will approach 15 mph
with some higher gusts along the Space/Treasure coasts and 7-12 mph
over the interior. Mid-level ridging will amplify off of the FL
coast holding firm control of the weather pattern across the
peninsula to include the mid Atlc and southeast U.S. Deep layer
moisture does increase over the area late in the day and overnight,
but quickly moves off to the west by sunrise Tue morning. Will
continue to keep PoPs out of the forecast for this day.

Unseasonably warm temperatures with highs in the U70s/L80s along the
coast and L-M80s inland. Overnight lows in the 60s with the
deepening onshore flow. Patchy fog, locally dense, with some low
stratus clouds will again be a problem, especially into the interior
overnight and early Tue morning.

Tue-Sun...Continue with a persistent forecast for the extended. The
strong western Atlc mid-level ridging remains in firm control of the
weather pattern across the FL peninsula and southeast U.S. as it
slowly retrogrades into the GOMEX by the end of the week while on a
gradual weakening trend. The continued lack of mid/upper support
will keep surface fronts north of the area. While short-lived,
pockets of deeper moisture undercut the strong/deep high pressure,
PoPs will generally remain below 20pct (generous) thru the period.
Onshore flow at the surface continues with surface ridging focus
north of central FL through at least Sat. Medium range models show
the ridge axis settling southward into the central peninsula on Sun.
Highs/lows remain consistent and well above normal. The greatest
weather concern remains fog/low cloud potential each night/morning,
especially well into the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR stratus/fog expected to expand from KLEE vcnty to KDAB/KSFB/
KMCO and KISM through sunrise. Low stratus and fog should then lift
from 14z-16z with VFR conds all terminals this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...There is a chance for some low visibility fog/stratus to
affect the Volusia near shore waters early this morning. Otherwise, a
trough across the waters will weaken with more uniform onshore flow
developing through late afternoon and increasing to near 10 knots.
Seas 2 ft nearshore to 3 ft offshore.

Tonight...Onshore flow will increase some overnight to 10-15 knots
after midnight. This will build seas slightly to 3 ft nearshore and
3-4 ft offshore.

Mon-Thu...Surface high pressure ridging will develop north of the
waters and remain north of central FL thru next week. This will keep
a steady onshore (SE/ESE) flow across the forecast area. Wind speeds
generally 10-15 kts, but could occasionally approach 15-20 kts over
the Gulf Stream south of the Cape thru mid-week. Seas generally 3-4
ft near shore and 4-5 ft Gulf Stream. Some guidance showing 6 ft
seas over the Gulf Stream next week, but have capped at 5 ft for
now. Shower chances remain at only slight chance at best.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  61  79  65 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  84  63  83  65 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  81  65  80  68 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  82  65  81  69 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  84  63  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  63  82  65 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  84  65  83  66 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  82  64  80  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Northern Lake
     County-Southern Lake County.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Volkmer
MID-LONG TERM/DSS....Sedlock


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