Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 141921
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
220 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight-Friday...Mid level flow pattern will back slightly from west
to WSW as ridging builds northward from the Caribbean to over the
Greater Antilles. The surface high pressure ridge over south Florida
and the Bahamas will weaken and collapse by late Friday as a cool
front sags across the Gulf States and into the NE GOMEX/FL Panhandle.
Central Florida will remain in SW low level flow, thus temps will be
warmer compared to previous 24 hours. In fact, Friday morning mins
will average about 10-12F warmer compared to this morning. Coolest
readings (U40s-L50s) remain across the south, while to the north,
mainly L-M50s. Maxes warming into the U70s for most areas during the
afternoon.

Consensus of the model guidance continues to show a small pool of
moisture advecting NE from the GOMEX, clipping the northern CWA
between 06Z-12Z, however MOS numbers have backed off on the small
shower chances in that area, so have removed from the grids.

Saturday-Sunday...Post-frontal air mass seeps southward across east
central Florida into the weekend as a cool front sinks south and
becomes diffuse, and eventually stalls. Nonetheless, drying ensues
with the frontal moisture band drying up, inhibiting any chance for
meaningful precip. Stout high pressure at the surface is forecast
to build across the Southeast U.S. and transition seaward off the
Carolina/Georgia coasts. Locally, this will allow low-level winds
to progressively turn N to NE, and then E by Sun. Max temps U60s
(north/inland) to M70s (south/coastal) for Sat, but M/U70s for Sun.
Min temps generally in the 50s Sat/Sun morn, except some readings in
L60s and along the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts Sun. Then,
milder by Mon morning. Little to no rain across the weekend.

Monday-Wednesday...(From Previous) Models have assumed reasonable
agreement into early next week with timing of next frontal boundary
to move through the region. The ECMWF has trended more toward the
GFS solution keeping a stronger mid level ridge in place across
South Florida and Caribbean region. This will keep boundary and
deeper moisture/rain chances north of the forecast area, with warm
and generally dry conditions in place across East Central Florida
through at least Tue. Ridge is then shunted southward as S/W moves
through the southern U.S., pushing front toward the area. Some
uncertainty exists regarding its southward progress, but enough to
introduce slight PoPs for Wed and Wed Night.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Finally starting to see the advertised increase in
diurnal clouds north of Lake Kissimmee-KMLB with CIGs BKN040-050.
SKC to SCT045 to the south. Overnight into Friday, expect mainly
FEW045 SCT-BKN250 for the KMLB-KSUA corridor, BKN040-050 BKN250
KISM-KMCO-KTIX northward.

&&

.MARINE...Overnight-Friday. Moderate SW Flow about 8-13KT north of
SIPF1 and below 10KT to the south, closer to the ridge axis. Seas
running 1-1.5FT near shore and 2FT or so offshore. NWPS wave model
guidance has been running about a foot too high since early this
morning. WNAWAVE looks like a better fit for current conditions.

Saturday-Tuesday...After a weakening cool front drifts through the
region Friday night-Saturday, it will cause winds to briefly shift
out of the north and slightly build seas to 3 feet offshore. High
pressure building seaward north of the area will then prompt winds
to veer onshore into Sunday, with speeds forecast to remain less
than 15 knots and seas 2-3 feet, subsiding to around 2FT Monday
and Tuesday as winds slacken and veer to the south and southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  76  53  67 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  57  76  55  72 /  10  10  10   0
MLB  53  76  57  73 /   0  10  10   0
VRB  50  76  56  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  57  77  53  70 /  10  10  10   0
SFB  56  76  54  70 /  10  10  10   0
ORL  57  76  55  71 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  48  76  55  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Cristaldi
LONG TERM/DSS...Sharp



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